SATS - Phillip Securities 2020-08-25: Operations Bottomed But Recovery Subdued

SATS LTD. (SGX:S58) | SGinvestors.io SATS LTD. (SGX:S58)

SATS - Operations Bottomed But Recovery Subdued

  • SATS (SGX:S58)'s 1Q21 results were within expectations. Revenue declined 55% y-o-y to S$209mn with a net loss of S$43mn in 1Q21.
  • The net loss was after tax credit and government relief of totalling around S$80mn.
  • Operationally the airport traffic has bottomed but any recovery will be tepid.
  • We maintain our SELL recommendation on SATS with an unchanged target price of S$1.95. Our valuations are pegged to P/B average of 1.35x during the global financial crisis in 2009. The trajectory for any meaningful recovery in air traffic is uncertain and prolonged.



The Positives


Restructuring staff cost.

  • Staff cost excluding the S$61.7mn government relief was cut by around 32% y-o-y in 1Q21. The number of employees has been lowered by 19% y-o-y to 13,500.

Cargo is relatively stronger.

  • Cargo segment has performed relatively better than other segments. Cargo handled declined 51% to 221k in 1Q21, in comparison passengers handled tumbled 99% to 0.2mn.


The Negatives


Associates a major source of weakness.

  • With government relief, SATS suffered an operating loss of S$36mn. It was comparable to the S$31mn losses by associates and joint venture. China was the largest drag to associates. The closure of Beijing Daxing Airport was a reason for the losses in China.


Outlook

  • FCF in 1Q21 was a negative $71mn. With a cash balance of S$723mn (net debt: S$152mn), SATS can easily ride out the current downturn or another 10 quarters of the similar level of FCF cash burn-rate. SATS has likely bottomed out operationally but we worry such listless conditions may persist for another three to four quarters.


Maintain SELL with a target price of S$1.95






Paul Chew Phillip Securities Research | https://www.stocksbnb.com/ 2020-08-25
SGX Stock Analyst Report SELL MAINTAIN SELL 1.950 SAME 1.950



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