Sembcorp Marine - UOB Kay Hian 2021-09-06: Things Can Only Get Better; Upgrade To BUY

SGinvestors.io

SEMBCORP MARINE LTD (SGX:S51)

Sembcorp Marine - Things Can Only Get Better; Upgrade To BUY

• We upgrade Sembcorp Marine to a BUY as we believe much of the negatives surrounding the company are priced in at current levels. Post its S$1.5b rights issue, Sembcorp Marine should be in better shape to weather market conditions over the next 12-18 months and hopefully enable it to garner new orderflow.
• Our new P/B-based target price for Sembcorp Marine uses a 0.74x target multiple for 2022 which is a 30% discount to the company’s past-five-year average P/B of 1.07x.

Upgrading to BUY as we believe much of the negatives are priced in.

• We have upgraded Sembcorp Marine (SGX:S51) to a BUY with a target price of S$0.11/share which represents ~28% upside from current levels. We have assumed that the company’s rights issue successfully raises S$1.5b, which results in a 2022 estimated book value per share of S$0.14. We have pegged our target multiple of 0.74x to this book value which results in a target price of S$0.11.
• At Sembcorp Marine’s EGM on 23 August, 52.4% of the company total outstanding shares were voted, and of this, 98.1% were in favour of the rights issue. Note that all parties were allowed to vote on the resolution, even Sembcorp Marine’s 43% shareholder Temasek Holdings.
• Going into the EGM, Temasek had pledged to subscribe for both its pro-rata entitlement as well as excess rights and thus take up as much as 67% (or almost S$1b) of the rights issue. DBS (SGX:D05) had undertaken to underwrite the remaining 33%. While a mandatory general offer (MGO) will be triggered, Sembcorp Marine had previously stated during its 1H21 results briefing that its major shareholder had committed to keep Sembcorp Marine as a listed company. We highlight that Temasek has not sought a waiver to conduct an MGO.

Where could we be wrong for Sembcorp Marine?

• The downside case for Sembcorp Marine includes:
  • a more prolonged supply of labour for Sembcorp Marine’s shipyards.

Buy the rights issued by Sembcorp Marine, if you have patience.

• With the Sembcorp Marine rights price closing at S$0.002 on the offshore renewables and marine industry.

Positive news from Sembcorp Marine’s largest debtor.

• There has been good news from one of Sembcorp Marine’s largest debtors, Borr Drilling (BORR US), which lately has secured some medium-term work for its jackup rigs. These are detailed in the PDF report attached below.
• Mist, in particular, is warm-stacked rigs during 2H21.

Sembcorp Marine - Earnings Revision

• We have left our earnings estimate for 2021 to green energy solutions.

Sembcorp Marine - Valuation & Recommendation

• Upgrade Sembcorp Marine to BUY with a scenario. To quantify the potential downside, we note that Sembcorp Marine’s trough than -1 standard deviation below its five-year average.
• See
  • Sembcorp Marine's Share Price,
  • Sembcorp Marine's Target Price,
  • Sembcorp Marine's Analyst Reports,
  • Sembcorp Marine's Dividend History,
  • Sembcorp Marine's Announcements,
  • Sembcorp Marine's Latest News.

Sembcorp Marine's share price catalysts

• Successfully raising S$1.5b via its rights issue, which the company is targeting to complete in 3Q21.
• New orders for rigs, offshore renewable installations or fabrication works.
• Merger or JVs with other shipyards.

Adrian LOH UOB Kay Hian Research | https://research.uobkayhian.com/ 2021-09-06

SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY UPGRADE HOLD 0.11 DOWN 0.124