CAPITALAND MALL TRUST (SGX:C38U)
COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD (SGX:C52)
CSE GLOBAL LTD (SGX:544)
DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD (SGX:D05)
FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST (SGX:Q5T)
JAPFA LTD. (SGX:UD2)
KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED (SGX:BN4)
MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST (SGX:ME8U)
RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS LIMITED (SGX:AP4)
SINGTEL (SGX:Z74)
Singapore Stock Alpha Picks - Sticking To Our Guns
- Our portfolio rose 2.0% m-o-m in Jun 20, slightly lower than the FSSTI’s gain of 3.2% m-o-m, mainly due to CSE Global's share price weakness (-9.1% m-o-m). However, the recent emergence of Heliconia as its largest shareholder should put CSE Global in a stronger position to expand its business.
- For Jul 20, we stick to our picks as we expect further share price upside to our portfolio.
Outperformed in 2Q20.
- On an equal weighted basis, our portfolio’s +8.1% return in 2Q20 handily beat the FSSTI’s gain of 4.4% over the quarter.
Reviewing our picks in June.
- Our portfolio gained 2.0% m-o-m in Jun 20, narrowly underperforming the FSSTI which rose 3.2% m-o-m following the retracement in May 20.
- Although our portfolio had strong outperformers in Jun 20 via Riverstone (SGX:AP4) (+17.0% m-o-m), DBS (SGX:D05) (+6.8% m-o-m) and Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX:MR8U) (+5.0% m-o-m), overall portfolio performance was affected by CSE Global (SGX:544) which declined 9.1% m-o-m, partly due to the ex-dividend adjustment. However, we believe the recent emergence of Heliconia as its largest shareholder after acquiring a 25% stake from Serba Dinamik puts CSE Global in a stronger position to expand its business, especially for smart-city projects in Singapore, and also to access cheaper financing options.
Staying the course, fundamentals remain intact.
- Following the reshuffling of our picks in Jun 20, we make no changes to our portfolio for Jul 20. In our view, fundamentals remain intact for our portfolio, and we expect further upside to the target prices of these stocks.
CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX:C38U) – BUY (Jonathan Koh & Peihao Loke)
- Given that Singapore has moved into Phase 2 of the re-opening, CapitaLand Mall Trust (SGX:C38U) will benefit from this transition in our view. Currently, downtown malls account for 52% of CapitaLand Mall Trust's portfolio valuation, vs 48% for suburban malls. Funan re-opened in Jun 19 and will make full-year contribution in 2020.
- The proposed merger of CapitaLand Mall Trust and CapitaLand Commercial Trust (SGX:C61U) will create a diversified commercial REIT with increased scale to pursue acquisitions and integrated developments. CapitaLand Mall Trust will morph into the third-largest REIT in the Asia Pacific region.
- CapitaLand Mall Trust’s 2021 distribution yield of 5.8% is attractive in our view, given its size and scale.
- See CapitaLand Mall Trust Share Price; CapitaLand Mall Trust Target Price; CapitaLand Mall Trust Analyst Reports; CapitaLand Mall Trust Dividend History; CapitaLand Mall Trust Announcements; CapitaLand Mall Trust Latest News.
CapitaLand Mall Trust Share Price Catalyst
- Events:
- Transition into Phase 2 of re-opening with more retail shops resuming operations;
- recovery in consumer spending as the Singapore economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic; and
- impending merger of CapitaLand Mall Trust and CapitaLand Commercial Trust.
- Timeline: 6-12 months.
ComfortDelGro (SGX:C52) – BUY (Lucas Teng)
Ridership recovery in play.
- The circuit breaker was lifted on 2 June, with Phase 1 of re-opening taking place. Through the gradual return to workplace activities, land transport activities are likely to recover and the worst may be over in terms of ridership.
- Potential updates to the rail financing model by authorities to accommodate lower riderships in the near term would be a positive for the loss-making Downtown Line (DTL).
Watching bus tenders.
- On the local front, bus contracts for Sembawang and Bulim have been put up for tender. In Australia, regional bus contracts were recently opened for tender by Transport for New South Wales.
Taxi rebates in June although relief appears to be easing with continued delivery of jobs support.
- ComfortDelGro (SGX:C52)’s taxi rental waivers in June will be at 50%, a negative to earnings, although this will be offset by measures from the recent Fortitude Budget. Taxi rental relief measures at ComfortDelGro appear to be easing, as with major taxi competitors, and the company continues to secure jobs for drivers through food and medicine delivery services.
- See ComfortDelGro Share Price; ComfortDelGro Target Price; ComfortDelGro Analyst Reports; ComfortDelGro Dividend History; ComfortDelGro Announcements; ComfortDelGro Latest News.
ComfortDelGro Share Price Catalyst
- Events: Faster-than-expected recovery in ridership from the easing of stay-home measures, and bus tender contract wins
- Timeline: 3-6 months.
Riverstone Holdings (SGX:AP4) – BUY (Llelleythan Tan/John Cheong)
Demand for healthcare gloves remains strong as second wave of infections hit various countries.
- For 2Q20, Riverstone (SGX:AP4)’s management highlighted that ASPs for healthcare gloves have risen as global demand continues to outpace supply. As more countries start to experience second wave of Covid-19 infections, demand for healthcare gloves continues to increase and customers have offered to pay higher prices to secure inventories.
- Healthcare glove ASP is expected to increase by around 10% every month up to Aug 20. ASP has not been fixed for Sep 20 but management expects ASP to be at least the same as in Aug 20. Also, the favourable ASP environment is expected to continue up to 1H21, based on customers’ strong indicative demand.
Positive surprise for ASP from new tier pricing.
- Besides the 10% monthly increase in ASPs, Riverstone’s ASPs for healthcare gloves have been given a surprise boost by a new tier pricing for Riverstone’s regular healthcare glove customers. Starting Jul 20, Riverstone has started using a new tier pricing system for its regular customers whereby instead of paying a negotiated fixed price for a certain volume, regular customers would pay different tiered prices. This new tier system was proposed by regular customers and not Riverstone.
- As most of Riverstone’s regular customers are glove distributors with hospitals as end-clients, we believe this shows the growing unmet demand for healthcare gloves if regular customers are willing to pay spot prices to ensure they have stock.
- See Riverstone Share Price; Riverstone Target Price; Riverstone Analyst Reports; Riverstone Dividend History; Riverstone Announcements; Riverstone Latest News.
Riverstone Share Price Catalyst
- Events: Second wave of COVID-19 infections.
- Timeline: 3-6 months.
- See initiation coverage report: Riverstone Holdings - UOB Kay Hian 2020-05-13: 1Q20 Strong Beat; Expect Stronger Quarters Ahead From ASP Hike.
- See also recent update:
- Riverstone Holdings - UOB Kay Hian 2020-05-26: Positive Takeaways From Conference Call; Raise Target Price By 18%.
- Riverstone Holdings - UOB Kay Hian 2020-06-17: Uptrend In ASPs Likely To Continue; Raise Target Price By 24.7%.
- Riverstone Holdings - UOB Kay Hian 2020-07-07: Expect Outperformance Due To Rising ASPs; Raise Target Price By 14.1%.
CSE Global (SGX:544) – BUY (Joohijit Kaur & John Cheong)
Emergence of Heliconia as largest shareholder.
- CSE Global (SGX:544) announced on 7 Jul 20 that Heliconia, a wholly owned subsidiary of Temasek, has emerged as its largest shareholder after acquiring a 25% stake from Serba Dinamik. See CSE Global Announcements. Apart from the strong institutional investor brand, we believe this puts CSE Global in a stronger position to expand its business, especially in smart city projects in Singapore, and access to cheaper financing options.
- Stronger orderbook backed by flow orders; increasingly diversified business gives the group a stronger footing than it did in previous crises. More than 90% of the group’s revenue comes from the flow business (brownfield or small greenfield projects) which are recurring in nature. Although the group has exposure to oil & gas (O&G) at 65% of 2019 earnings, we do not expect a severe impact from the slump in oil prices, given that the majority of revenue is recurring in nature, relying more on its customer’s opex rather than capex budget.
- Additionally, following the O&G crisis in 2015-16, the group built up a radio communications business in Australia through a series of acquisitions as part of its business diversification plan and also pursued market share in the onshore O&G segment. We also highlight that the group ended 2019 with an order backlog of S$307.3m, 60% higher than the S$192.7m in 2015, putting the group in a better position.
Attractive 2020F dividend yield of 5.7%, backed by strong cash flow and balance sheet.
- CSE Global has adopted an absolute DPS payout of 2.75 S cents/share since 2014 and we are expecting the same payout for 2020, translating into a generous dividend yield of 5.7%. We believe this is sustainable, given CSE Global’s strong operating cash flow and low net gearing at 18% as at 1Q20 (4Q20: 25%). Also, operating cash flow reported solid growth of 210% y-o-y to S$17.3m.
- See CSE Global Share Price; CSE Global Target Price; CSE Global Analyst Reports; CSE Global Dividend History; CSE Global Announcements; CSE Global Latest News.
CSE Global Share Price Catalyst
- Events: Recovery in oil prices.
- Timeline: 6-12 months.
- See also report: CSE Global - UOB Kay Hian 2020-06-03: 1Q20 Robust Results; Strong Orderbook Should Sustain Growth.
Far East Hospitality Trust (SGX:Q5T) – BUY (Jonathan Koh & Peihao Loke)
1Q20 business update in line with expectations.
- The 1Q20 business update on 4 May 20 demonstrates Far East Hospitality Trust’s resiliency with its hotel portfolio, providing fixed rents and downside protection. Its serviced-residences portfolio outperformed with occupancy improving 3.4ppt y-o-y to 83.6%, driven by higher corporate demand.
Downside protection from master-lease agreement.
- The negative impact from the outbreak of COVID-19 is mitigated by its master-lease structure, under which fixed rents accounted for 72% of Far East Hospitality Trust's 2019 gross revenue. Sponsor Far East Organisation (FEO) owns 61% of Far East Hospitality Trust.
Review of management fee structure.
- With effect from 1 Jan 20, base fee was reduced from 0.30% to 0.28% of deposited properties. The previous performance fee of 4% of NPI was reduced to 4% of NPI or 4% of annual distributable amount, whichever is lower. The above two changes reduce total management fees by S$1.74m or 14.2% if these changes were applied retrospectively in 2019.
No refinancing risks.
- Far East Hospitality Trust does not have any term loans due for refinancing in 2020.
Anticipate recovery in 4Q20.
- Inbound travel will be impacted over the next few months. Visitor arrivals, whether corporate or leisure, can only recover after travel restrictions are lifted. Management expects a partial recovery in 4Q20 and normalcy to return at end-20.
Maintain BUY.
- Far East Hospitality Trust trades at an attractive P/NAV of 0.58x and distribution yield should improve to 7.3% in 2021 on our estimates. Our target price of S$0.62 is based on DDM (required rate of return: 7.5%, terminal growth: 1.8%).
- See Far East Hospitality Trust Share Price; Far East Hospitality Trust Target Price; Far East Hospitality Trust Analyst Reports; Far East Hospitality Trust Dividend History; Far East Hospitality Trust Announcements; Far East Hospitality Trust Latest News.
Far East Hospitality Trust Share Price Catalyst
- Event: Inbound travel starting to recover in 4Q20.
- Timeline: 6-12 months.
SingTel (SGX:Z74) – BUY (Lee Len Chong & Chloe Tan Jie Ying)
Earnings recovery in 2HFY21.
- Expect full impact of COVID-19 by 1QFY21. SingTel (SGX:Z74) withdrew its FY21 guidance in view of the COVID-19-induced uncertainties. We expect consumer weakness to be reflected in 1QFY21 alongside pockets of cutbacks in enterprise business revenue. Thereafter, the opening of economies in the ASEAN region will provide for the gradual recovery in roaming revenue and sentiment.
Dividends.
- Management will focus on preserving cash amid global uncertainties and will prepare to invest in 5G from FY22. As a result, we have cut our FY21-22 net DPS forecasts to 12.25 S cents and 13.95 S cents respectively (~80% payout). This translates into a net dividend yield of 4.9% for 2020E. See SingTel Dividend History.
Tower sales.
- Management has confirmed the tower sales deal in Australia is ongoing, and deems the asset monetisation will be value-accretive to shareholders.
- See SingTel Share Price; SingTel Target Price; SingTel Analyst Reports; SingTel Dividend History; SingTel Announcements; SingTel Latest News.
SingTel Share Price Catalyst
- Events:
- Opening of economies allow for recovery of roaming revenue lost in 1H20,
- market repair in Singapore;
- faster-than-expected recovery in Optus consumer and enterprise businesses;
- better-than-expected regional earnings; and
- dividend visibility by Aug 20.
- Timeline: 6-12 months.
Mapletree Industrial Trust (SGX:ME8U) – BUY (Jonathan Koh & Peihao Loke)
Accelerated expansion into hi-tech buildings and data centres.
- Post completion of the 50% stake acquisition in 13 data centres in North America in Dec 19, Mapletree Industrial Trust's exposure to hi-tech buildings has further expanded from 43.3% to 52.9% of AUM. Its exposure to data centres has also expanded from 17.7% to 31.5% of AUM (Singapore: 7.2%, US & Canada: 24.3%).
Data centres are beneficiaries of COVID-19 pandemic.
- Data centres have benefitted from the shift towards telecommuting, which has resulted in a pick-up in online conferences and seminars. Social media websites and e-commerce platforms have also experienced a noticeable increase in online activities. We see value in Mapletree Industrial Trust as an entry into high-growth data centres at a reasonable price.
- Our target price of S$2.85 is based on DDM (cost of equity: 6.0%, terminal growth: 1.8%).
- See Mapletree Industrial Trust Share Price; Mapletree Industrial Trust Target Price; Mapletree Industrial Trust Analyst Reports; Mapletree Industrial Trust Dividend History; Mapletree Industrial Trust Announcements; Mapletree Industrial Trust Latest News.
Mapletree Industrial Trust Share Price Catalyst
- Events: Resiliency from exposure to data centres.
- Timeline: 3-12 months.
Japfa (SGX:UD2) – BUY (John Cheong & Joohijit Kaur)
Vietnam’s swine prices have exceeded 5-year high due to ASF.
- We believe the development of the African swine fever (ASF) in Vietnam is somewhat similar to that in China, where the number of affected cases will peak in the first six months and then start to fall. This is in line with Japfa (SGX:UD2)’s base-case scenario.
- Also, we understand that the affected swine count is within Japfa’s expectation of < 25% of its total swine population. We estimate that on a net basis, the profitability of Japfa’s Vietnam swine segment should benefit as the spike in swine ASP should more than offset the volume decline.
China’s raw milk prices have exceeded 5-year high due to undersupply.
- Dairy used to be Japfa’s most stable segment due to stable raw milk ASP in China. However, ASP has exceeded its 5-year high since late-3Q19. We believe this can be attributed to undersupply in the market due to a prolonged low ASP environment which has not incentivised the building of new dairy farms.
- See Japfa Share Price; Japfa Target Price; Japfa Analyst Reports; Japfa Dividend History; Japfa Announcements; Japfa Latest News.
Japfa Share Price Catalyst
- Event: Better-than-expected prices for Indonesia poultry, China dairy and Vietnam swine products.
- Timeline: 3-6 months.
Keppel Corp (SGX:BN4) – BUY (Adrian Loh)
Returns targets.
- In its Vision 2030, Keppel Corp is targeting a long-term ROE of 15% which it believes is achievable without the benefit of future capital raisings. It is also looking to achieve a “high-single-digit” ROIC, and also to generate a greater percentage of its earnings from recurring revenues.
Temasek offer still intact in our view.
- In our view, unless there is a large variance to the Material Adverse Conditions clause of the partial offer, Temasek will go ahead with it, given that:
- it is a sovereign wealth fund and has a long-term view on its investments; and
- it needs to gain control of Keppel Corp to push through a restructuring of the Singapore shipyard industry.
Risks ahead.
- We currently estimate a 40% dividend payout ratio for 2020 but there is downside risk to 1H20 dividend due to the COVID-19 pandemic;
- Keppel Corp’s 50%- owned Floatel is currently conducting an independent review of its impairment assessment after its competitor took a US$810m impairment hit in 1Q20.
Maintain BUY
- Maintain BUY and target price of S$7.15, based on our SOTP-valuation. Keppel Corp's current one-year forward PE of 12.6x appears inexpensive as it is 15% below its 5-year average of 14.9x. In addition, the company's one-year forward P/B of 0.88x is below its - 1SD level of 0.99x
- See Keppel Corp Share Price; Keppel Corp Target Price; Keppel Corp Analyst Reports; Keppel Corp Dividend History; Keppel Corp Announcements; Keppel Corp Latest News.
Keppel Corp Share Price Catalyst
- Event: Continued recovery in new order flow in 2020.
- Timeline: 3-6 months.
DBS – BUY (Jonathan Koh)
Wealth management continued to outperform in 1Q20.
- Fees grew 14% y-o-y, driven by wealth management (+14% y-o-y) and loan-related fees (+17% y-o-y). Other non-interest income grew by a hefty 39% y-o-y. Net trading income was robust due to increased customer flows from hedging of interest rates and forex risks as a result of heightened uncertainties. DBS also recognised gains from investment securities.
BUY on sustainable yield.
- DBS aims to provide sustainable dividends that rise progressively. For 2019, the board has recommended a final dividend of 33 S cents (unchanged) that was paid on 26 May 20.
Guidance for 2020.
- DBS expects full-year PPOP at around 2019’s level after factoring in declines for the rest of the year. It expects credit costs to rise to S$3b-5b (80-130bp) cumulatively over 2020-21. Management guided credit costs at 65bp each for 2020 and 2021. The new guidance factors in a deeper and more prolonged economic impact from the COVID-19 pandemic. This is in line with our expectations.
- See DBS Share Price; DBS Target Price; DBS Analyst Reports; DBS Dividend History; DBS Announcements; DBS Latest News.
DBS Share Price Catalyst
- Event: Recovery in economic activities after COVID-19 outbreak subsides.
- Timeline: 3-6 months.
Singapore Research
UOB Kay Hian Research
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https://research.uobkayhian.com/
2020-07-09
SGX Stock
Analyst Report
2.600
SAME
2.600
1.820
SAME
1.820
0.650
SAME
0.650
26.220
SAME
26.220
0.620
SAME
0.620
0.960
SAME
0.960
7.150
SAME
7.150
3.080
SAME
3.080
3.600
SAME
3.600
2.800
SAME
2.800