Sembcorp Industries - CGS-CIMB Research 2020-07-18: Towards A New Chapter

SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (SGX:U96)

Sembcorp Industries - Towards A New Chapter

Sembcorp Industries (SGX:U96) reported losses of S$131m for 1H20, including S$191m impairment loss and write-downs mainly in energy. Core net profit (S$60m) missed due to marine.
Energy segment’s 1H20 net loss of S$5m included one-offs worth S$161m. Energy core profit of S$156m was driven by China, RoW and India.
We believe re-rating of energy business takes time as new CEO is on board. No major strategic review is required for now.

Impairment losses and write-downs of S$191m included S$161m in the energy segment and S$30m in other businesses. Majority of the energy impairment was due to write-down of gasoil reserves to net realisable value (NRV) and the uncertainty over recovery of gasoil inventory at Hin Leong Trading.
It also reported impairment on its investments in Sembcorp Salalah Power and Water Company (Salalah) due to credit rating downgrade for Oman and fair value gain previously recognised during Salalah’s IPO in 2013. We believe the quantum of impairment should taper in 2H20F, with c.S$30m currency translation loss likely after the divestment of water business in Chile in 3Q20F.

The reduction in economic activity due to lockdowns led to reduced demand for energy and lower prices. Energy’s core net profit fell 12% y-o-y to S$156m due to lower energy demand in Singapore (-5% y-o-y), India (-16%), and UK (-20%). However, China profit rose 7% y-o-y to S$62m in 1H20 as hydro-power supply was weaker which drove the demand for thermal power.
As China’s economy opened ahead of the rest of the world, we think the demand could sustain into 2H20F, resulting in stable profits y-o-y in FY20F. A key risk is a second wave of Covid-19. Middle East surprised positively as 1H20 core profit rose 26% y-o-y and 63% hoh to S$49m on higher tariffs in Salalah and Fujairah, and an insurance settlement.

India profit of S$25m in 1H20 (-29% y-o-y, -62% hoh) beat our forecast due to a customer payment settlement of S$23m. Plant load factor for SEIL 1, 2 and SGPL was 86%, 67% and 24% (1H19: 72%, 84%, 22%), respectively. We forecast Sembcorp Industries’s India profit to fall 23% y-o-y to S$77m in FY20F, mainly driven by wind power and SEIL 1. SEIL 2 is likely to remain in losses as operating conditions are worse y-o-y.
Singapore profit of S$30m in 1H20 was a record low due to the circuit breaker, lower gas sales and loss of profit from the divested JAC assets. Jurong Island activities have been reduced and as Singapore heads into a recession, we believe utility load demand is likely to remain weak in 2H20F. Utility assets are nearing end-of-life (c. > 20 years), and a review of replacement capex is on the cards.

New CEO, Mr. Wong Kim Win’s immediate focus is the recapitalisation of Sembcorp Marine (SGX:S51) and demerger. He believes that Sembcorp Industries is in the right geography– India, China, Southeast Asia and the group is well positioned in the sectors it operates in.
Formerly the CEO of SP Group, Mr Wong has more than 20 years of experience in the energy sector and in investment management. He was the senior managing director of investments at Temasek International, responsible for investments in various sectors, including the energy, transportation and industrial clusters.
Prior to Temasek, Mr. Wong Kim Win worked for The AES Corporation, a power company listed on the New York Stock Exchange. He is also the chairman of SkillsFuture Singapore, a government agency under the Ministry of Education.

With the continuing losses at Sembcorp Marine and energy impairment losses in 1H20, Sembcorp Industries expects to incur a loss for FY20F.
- Plans to maintain positive operating cashflow.
- Core profit for the energy business to be significantly lower than in FY19.
- Urban business profit to be lower than in FY19.

See Sembcorp Share Price; Sembcorp Target Price; Sembcorp Analyst Reports; Sembcorp Dividend History; Sembcorp Announcements; Sembcorp Latest News.
Post recapitalisation and demerger of Sembcorp Marine, Sembcorp Industries continues to focus on urbanisation, electricity and carbonisation (read: no major shift in strategy). We adjust our core EPS by 2-4%, reclassifying energy’s EI.
Our EPS for Sembcorp Industries still include Sembcorp Marine. See Fig5 in PDF report attached below for details.
See also report: Sembcorp Marine - CGS-CIMB Research 2020-07-15: Restrained By Lockdowns.

LIM Siew Khee CGS-CIMB Research | https://www.cgs-cimb.com 2020-07-18

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