StarHub - UOB Kay Hian 2022-08-05: 2Q22 In Line; Top-line Growth From All Service Segments


StarHub - 2Q22 In Line; Top-line Growth From All Service Segments

  • StarHub's 2Q22 revenue grew 12.2% y-o-y and 6.5% q-o-q, in line with expectations. Core PATAMI dropped 16.6% y-o-y but grew 4.9% q-o-q to S$31.2m, driven by higher upfront capex investments.
  • StarHub is on track to meet/exceed 2022 guidance. The mobile segment saw higher take-up of its 5G plans while the broadband and enterprise segments benefitted from consolidation of acquisitions. The entertainment segment saw higher subscription prices and subscribers.
  • Maintain HOLD. Target price: S$1.30.

StarHub's 2Q22 results within expectations.

  • StarHub (SGX:CC3) reported 2Q22 revenue and core PATAMI of S$545.9m (+12.2% y-o-y, +6.5% q-o-q) and S$31.2m (-16.6% y-o-y, +4.9% q-o-q) respectively.
  • For 1H22, StarHub's revenue and core PATAMI formed 47.5% and 44.8% of our 2022 full-year estimates respectively, in line with expectations.
  • 2Q22 service revenue grew (+12.6% y-o-y, +9.3% q-o-q) while service EBITDA dipped slightly (-2.9% y-o-y, +12.5% q-o-q) due to frontloaded transformative investments. 2Q22 service EBITDA margins fell 4.0ppt y-o-y but grew +0.7ppt q-o-q.
  • StarHub declared an interim dividend of S$0.025 per share, consistent with the group’s earlier 2022 guidance of S$0.05 per share, representing an annualised dividend yield of around 4%.
  • Mobile: 2Q22 revenue grew 3.8% y-o-y and 0.1% q-o-q. Postpaid ARPU was steady q-o-q at S$29/month on higher roaming revenue and take-up of value added services (VAS). However, excluding one-off adjustments, postpaid ARPU would have been S$30/month. Postpaid subscribers increased by 19,000 this quarter as the strong uptake of its GIGA! plans continues. Average monthly churn rate remained low at 0.7% in 2Q22 (1Q22:0.8%).
  • Prepaid ARPU was flat at S$8/month but added 17,000 prepaid subscribers this quarter as borders reopened. Excluding the one-off adjustments, blended ARPUs would have increased by 1.4% y-o-y and 1.2% q-o-q to about S$22.4/month, implying strong take-up for the higher value-added 5G plans.
  • Enterprise: 2Q22 revenue jumped 15.3% y-o-y and 12.8% q-o-q, largely due higher regional ICT services revenue from the consolidation of StarHub’s JOS SG & MY acquisition completed in Jan 22. 2Q22 revenue from Network Solutions increased (+4.1% y-o-y, +1.5% q-o-q) due to the consolidation of MyRepublic Broadband while revenue from Cybersecurity Services also jumped 34.4% q-o-q from the early delivery of product sales.
  • Entertainment: Revenue increased from higher subscription prices. With ARPU being stable at S$31/month, 2Q22 entertainment revenue increased 5.4% y-o-y and 4.3% q-o-q from higher subscription prices and advertising revenue. Total subscribers went up by 19,000 this quarter due to higher traction for over-the-top services. Average monthly churn rate remained steady at 0.8% in 2Q22 (1Q22:0.8%). New revenue contributions from the EPL packages are expected to boost this segment in 2H22.
  • Broadband: Sharp boost from MyRepublic. Broadband revenue rose 33.0% y-o-y and 25.1% q-o-q, with ARPU higher at S$34/month (1Q22: S$33/month) due to strong demand for the higher-value 2Gbps plans. The sharp increase in revenue was also due to the consolidation of MyRepublic Broadband. Excluding the S$12.6m revenue contribution from MyRepublic Broadband, broadband revenue would still grow 7.0% y-o-y and 0.6% q-o-q respectively.

2022 guidance: On track to beat its own guidance.

  • 1H22’s y-o-y service revenue growth of 11.7% was higher than previously guided by StarHub, supported by strong performance from all service business segments. Given that revenue contributions from the newly-launched English Premier League (EPL) packages only starts in 2H22, along with an expected recovery in roaming data in 2H22, we expect 2H22 service revenue growth to exceed the group’s 2022 guidance.
  • Service EBITDA margin is expected to compress in 2H22 due to lumpy timing recognition of its upfront IT transformative investments. Furthermore, inflation-induced higher utilities cost, 5G wholesale fees and higher low-margin enterprise revenue mix may also drag margins.
  • Lastly, StarHub's management noted that 2022 full-year capex costs may be on the low end of its guidance.

StarHub - Earnings forecast revision and recommendation

Chong Lee Len UOB Kay Hian Research | Llelleythan Tan Yi Rong UOB Kay Hian | https://research.uobkayhian.com/ 2022-08-05
SGX Stock Analyst Report HOLD MAINTAIN HOLD 1.300 SAME 1.300