Genting Singapore - RHB Invest 2022-08-15: Awaiting Return Of Chinese Tourists; Downgrade To NEUTRAL


Genting Singapore - Awaiting Return Of Chinese Tourists; Downgrade To NEUTRAL

  • Genting Singapore’s 1H22 earnings missed our and Street’s expectations, mainly on higher-than-expected costs and poor luck factor. Its 2Q22 performance paled in comparison to Marina Bay Sands’ (MBS) stellar 2Q22.
  • We downgrade our rating as we believe the recovery story has been priced in, while its outlook remains uncertain with energy and staff cost increases, and the continued lack of tourists from China, which is a key market for Genting Singapore.
  • Downgrade Genting Singapore to NEUTRAL from Buy, with lower S$0.90 target price from S$0.95, 8% upside, 3.6% FY23 yield.

Genting Singapore's 1H22 below expectations.

  • Genting Singapore (SGX:G13)’ 1H22 core profit of S$109m made up 36% of our FY22F estimates and 31% of Street’s. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA came in at 44% and 42% of our forecasts, respectively. The q-o-q gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth of 2.7% was disappointing compared to MBS’s q-o-q GGR growth of 84%. The disappointing results were also due to Genting Singapore’ poor luck factor in 2Q22.
  • Dividend of S$0.01 is as expected.
  • While Resorts World Sentosa’s (RWS) non-gaming revenue recovered 32% q-o-q and GGR recovered 2.7% q-o-q, we think Genting Singapore’ recovery may be slower than expected. While the shortage of staff is partially to blame, management is still aggressively hiring and hopes to hire 1,600 staff by the year-end.
  • Our recent visits to both RWS and MBS saw disappointing footfall at RWS’ premise and casino, vs the large crowds at MBS and its casino. On a Sunday afternoon, we observed that about half of the tables in the RWS casino were empty. From our conversations with RWS staff, we gathered that there has been a return of ASEAN tourists, but a noticeable lack of northern Asian (China) tourists. We observed that most of the patrons in RWS were locals, while those at MBS were more diverse, including crowds from southern Asian countries. This is reflected in RWS’s 2Q22 mass market share of 37% (vs 40% pre-pandemic).

Genting Singapore - Earnings Forecast.

Key risks:

  • Re-closure of international borders, which would likely reduce footfall,
  • negative luck factor and regulatory risks, which could impact gaming revenues, and
  • China’s strict clampdown on illegal gambling and capital outflows having a dampening effect on GENS.

Singapore Research RHB Securities Research | https://www.rhbgroup.com/ 2022-08-15
SGX Stock Analyst Report NEUTRAL DOWNGRADE BUY 0.90 DOWN 0.950