Singapore Market Strategy - UOB Kay Hian 2021-12-10: Remaining Bullish In 1H22

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CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED (SGX:C09) COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD (SGX:C52) DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD (SGX:D05) GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED (SGX:G13) KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED (SGX:BN4) OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP (SGX:O39) RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD (SGX:BSL) SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (SGX:U96) SEMBCORP MARINE LTD (SGX:S51) SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD (SGX:S63) THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO LTD (SGX:Y92) CIVMEC LIMITED (SGX:P9D) FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LIMITED (SGX:F03) INNOTEK LIMITED (SGX:M14) UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED (SGX:558)

Singapore Market Strategy - Remaining Bullish In 1H22

• We believe that the STI will continue to perform well in 2022. Singapore’s strong GDP growth in 2021 has set the stage for a 29% EPS growth in 2022 on our estimates.
• Importantly, the STI’s valuations are not stretched at present, trading at 2022F P/E and P/B of 13.2x and 1.1x respectively and paying a yield of over 4%.
• Our year-end 2022 target for the STI is 3,500.

Staying constructive for 1H22.

• Given the nature of a coronavirus-caused pandemic, a recovery was always going to be bumpy, and the recent emergence of the Omicron variant has injected a significant amount of volatility into global markets. While new variants will likely emerge, we believe that these are causes for concern and not panic as the policy outlook remains supportive in Asia; more importantly, the Singapore market is inexpensive vs its regional peers and its developed market peers.

29% EPS growth for 2022.

• For the Singapore stocks under our coverage, we forecast an aggregate 29% EPS growth in 2022 with all sectors, with the exception of aviation, to register y-o-y earnings growth. We expect property, shipyards and land transport to register the strongest earnings growth; however it should be noted that the first two sectors will be coming off low bases in 2021.

2022 STI year end target: 3,500

• We forecast the STI to reach 3,500 by the end of 2022 using a top-down methodology. This implies about 13% upside from current levels, which underlines our bullishness for the market. Our 2022 STI target is based on 20% earnings growth for 2022, and target P/E and P/B multiples of just under 14x and 1.0x respectively. Both of these target multiples are around 10% discount to the past 5-year average for the index which we believe is fair.
• 2022 valuations for the STI appear inexpensive, with the STI trading at a forecast 2022 P/E and P/B of 13.2x and 1.1x respectively, and paying a yield of over 4%. We highlight that these multiples are meaningful discounts to the STI’s long-term averages, so we expect some level of mean reversion in 1H22.

Rebound in 2021 setting a firm foundation for 2022.

• UOB GEMR forecasts Singapore GDP growth of 3.5% y-o-y in 2022 after a solid rebound of 6.5% in 2021. Despite the relatively high base in 2021, growth in 2022 should be underpinned by the export and manufacturing sectors, which will benefit from the expected recovery of Singapore’s key trading partners as they bolster their vaccination efforts into 2022.

2022 Singapore Stock Top Picks

• Our top large-cap picks are
  • City Developments (SGX:C09),
  • ComfortDelGro (SGX:C52),
  • DBS (SGX:D05),
  • Genting Singapore (SGX:G13),
  • Keppel Corp (SGX:BN4),
  • OCBC (SGX:O39),
  • Raffles Medical (SGX:BSL),
  • Sembcorp Industries (SGX:U96),
  • Sembcorp Marine (SGX:S51),
  • ST Engineering (SGX:S63) and
  • Thai Beverage (SGX:Y92).
• Meanwhile, in the small/mid-cap sector, we highlight
  • Civmec (SGX:P9D) (recent report: Civmec - UOB Kay Hian 2021-10-29: 1QFY22 Results Above Expectation; Positive Outlook With More Opportunities)
  • Food Empire (SGX:F03) (recent report: Food Empire - UOB Kay Hian 2021-11-15: 3Q21 Below Expectations Due To Costs; Price Increases Will Improve Earnings),
  • InnoTek (SGX:M14) (recent report: InnoTek - UOB Kay Hian 2021-09-08: Gaining Traction In The Electric Vehicle, Healthcare & Consumer Industries), and
  • UMS (SGX:558) (recent report: UMS Holdings - UOB Kay Hian 2021-11-17: 3Q21 Excellent Space Management Helped Negate Production Constraints).
• For 1H22, we are
  • OVERWEIGHT on consumer, financials, land transport, property, REITs, shipyards & industrials and technology sector, and
  • MARKET WEIGHT on aviation, gaming, healthcare, plantations and telecommunications sector.
• COVID-19 recovery plays include
  • SIA (SGX:C6L),
  • SATS (SGX:S58),
  • Genting Singapore (SGX:G13),
  • Ascott Residence Trust (SGX:HMN),
  • CDL Hospitality Trusts (SGX:J85), and
  • Far East Hospitality Trust (SGX:Q5T).
• See the 18-page PDF report attached below for complete analysis.

Adrian LOH UOB Kay Hian Research | Singapore Research Team UOB Kay Hian | https://research.uobkayhian.com/ 2021-12-10

SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY MAINTAIN BUY 8.500 SAME 8.500

BUY MAINTAIN BUY 1.990 SAME 1.990

BUY MAINTAIN BUY 37.000 SAME 37.000

BUY MAINTAIN BUY 1.080 SAME 1.080

BUY MAINTAIN BUY 6.740 SAME 6.740

SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY MAINTAIN BUY 15.350 SAME 15.350

BUY MAINTAIN BUY 1.660 SAME 1.660

BUY MAINTAIN BUY 2.590 SAME 2.590

BUY MAINTAIN BUY 0.110 SAME 0.110

BUY MAINTAIN BUY 4.050 SAME 4.050

SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY MAINTAIN BUY 0.920 SAME 0.920

BUY MAINTAIN BUY 0.980 SAME 0.980

BUY MAINTAIN BUY 1.300 SAME 1.300

BUY MAINTAIN BUY 1.200 SAME 1.200

BUY MAINTAIN BUY 1.660 SAME 1.660