Thai Beverage - Phillip Securities 2020-02-17: Full Of Spirit ~ A Record Quarter

THAI BEVERAGE PUBLIC CO LTD (SGX:Y92)

Thai Beverage - Full Of Spirit ~ A Record Quarter

Thai Beverage (SGX:Y92)'s 1Q20 revenue was within our estimates but earnings beat forecast. Beer operations disappointed but spirits division performed well.
Spirits division net profit jumped 25% y-o-y in 1Q20 on higher volumes and better margins. Spirits account for 84% of group PATMI. Volumes touched a record 89mn litres.

Beer sales volumes was a disappointment. Sabeco volumes dropped 6% in 1Q20 due to certain publicity regarding its ownership.
We are upgrading our recommendation to BUY. The spirits business sales volume and margins are better than expected. Sabeco beer business should recover in the following quarters. We raised our SOTP-derived Target Price to S$0.95 (previously S$0.80). Our FY20e earnings is raised by 6%. We increased our margin assumption and modelled profitability for the NAB business.

Volumes were up 4.2% in 1Q20. Sales volume of brown spirit, which have higher margin and prices, grew 6 to 7%. Prices of selected brown spirit will be raised from Dec19 to Feb20. White spirit margins were partly lifted by the change in bottles. Spirit sales in Myanmar were weaker due to a build-up of inventory last quarter, resulting in lower sell-through volumes.

Hit profitability for the first time due to a large jump in EBITDA margins from negative 0.4% to a positive 10.6%. The focus on traditional channels has led to low advertising and promotion expenses. SG&A expenses declined 11% y-o-y in 1Q20.

Sales volumes at Sabeco fell 6% y-o-y in 1Q20. It was due to the circulation of certain fake news, impacting sales volumes. The situation is improving with the help of press releases from the government and support from influencers. Domestic beer performed well with 13.5% y-o-y volume growth.

We are more positive on the outlook. Our initial concerns were over consumer spending in Thailand, especially farm incomes. Thai farm income has been resilient especially with the support from the government. Not only has spirit volumes been healthy, customers are purchasing the more premium and higher margin brown spirits. Beer disappointed but we expect a rebound in volumes after the negative episode.
The unfortunate outbreak of Covid-19 will dampen sales especially for on-trade or on-premises consumption of beverages. For Thai Beverage, beer is most exposed to on-trade consumption. Another category of exposure are volumes lost from the fewer tourist arrivals. The core brown spirits is relatively immune as consumption is mainly at home and by local consumers.

We are upgrading our recommendation to BUY from REDUCE.
Our SOTP-derived Target Price of S$0.95 (previously S$0.80) is raised due to our 6% increase in FY20e earnings and lowering the valuation discount to peers.
See Thai Beverage Share Price; Thai Beverage Target Price; Thai Beverage Analyst Reports; Thai Beverage Dividend History; Thai Beverage Announcements; Thai Beverage Latest News.

Paul Chew Phillip Securities Research | https://www.stocksbnb.com/ 2020-02-17

SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY UPGRADE REDUCE 0.95 UP 0.800