Keppel Corporation - CGS-CIMB Research 2019-06-27: Tailwinds

KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED (SGX:BN4) | SGinvestors.io KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED (SGX:BN4)

Keppel Corporation - Tailwinds

  • We think KEPPEL CORPORATION (SGX:BN4) is gradually enjoying the first fruits of seeds planted in recent years and is on track to see steady earnings recovery from FY19F.
  • With YTD orders at S$1.8bn, or 72% of our S$2.5bn order target for 2019, we see further upside and upgrade our orders to S$3bn for FY19F.
  • 2Q19F preview: we expect core profit of S$125m (1Q19: S$203m) in the absence of gains in property and M1 acquisition.
  • Maintain ADD, Target Price S$8.41.



Stronger O&M earnings visibility of 2.5 years

  • YTD orders of S$1.8bn surpassed the past four years trend since the oil price crisis. We estimate current order book to be c.S$5.4bn (+26% y-o-y) before taking in the 2Q19 revenue recognition.
  • We expect the plans to hire 1,800 O&M staff in 2019 include the expansion of the renewable energy team to focus on chasing more deals. With YTD orders already at 72% of our target, we up our 2019 orders to S$3bn. No change to our 2020 target of S$3bn.
  • We think appreciation has not been given to Keppel O&M for its increasing order book trend as it could end up with more than S$6bn by 2020F with S$3bn annual wins.


Tailwinds

  • Keppel O&M ventured into the wind in 2010 with a US$220m contract to build a wind for Seafox in the harsh in the North Sea. Windfarm-related projects may not be drilling rigs momentum is likely to be more contract values to be from US$150m to US$200m. We also do not rule oil & gas vessels into vessels.
  • Keppel O&M has secured c.S$700m of windfarm and we expect more pipeline.


How big is the offshore wind sector?

  • The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) estimates that the offshore wind has grown by 21% 2013, providing a installed capacity globally currently. GWEC sees potential for the sector to install GW by 2030.
  • The UK has announced its plan to derive 30% of its electricity from China is expected to become the largest globally.


2Q19F preview (results on 18 July 2019), estimate profit of S$125m

  • Investors should not be overly concerned about land sale in SSTEC, further strength in O&M and asset recycling exercises, including the injection of SG4 from Keppel T&T into Keppel DC REIT (SGX:AJBU).
  • Long-term catalysts could come KrisEnergy (SGX:SK3). See attached PDF report for further details.


M1 consolidation no drastic costs; ADD with Target Price of S$8.41 on SOP

  • We understand from management during the recent NDR in Malaysia that the consolidation of M1 is unlikely to lead to drastic cost cutting/hefty restructuring costs. We keep our profit contribution for M1 at S$67m in FY19F and S$58m in FY20F.
  • Upside could come from the successful transformation leveraging M1’s 2.2m subscriber base and enterprise business.





LIM Siew Khee CGS-CIMB Research | https://research.itradecimb.com/ 2019-06-27
SGX Stock Analyst Report ADD MAINTAIN ADD 8.410 SAME 8.410



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