SPH REIT - OCBC Investment 2018-10-12: Stabilising Metrics; Revitalising The Rail Mall

SPH REIT (SGX:SK6U)

SPH REIT - Stabilising Metrics; Revitalising The Rail Mall

SPH REIT reported a predictable set of 4QFY18 results which came in within our expectations. Gross revenue and DPU grew 0.2% and 0.7% y-o-y to S$53.0m and 1.43 S cents, respectively. This included the maiden contribution from The Rail Mall, which was acquired by SPH REIT on 28 Jun 2018, and helped to offset the 2.2% y-o-y dip in gross revenue from Paragon.
For FY18, SPH REIT’s gross revenue came down slightly by 0.4% to S$211.8m and this constituted 98.7% of our full-year forecast. DPU of 5.54 S cents was flat (+0.2%) as compared to FY17, and formed 99.0% of our FY18 projection.

Overall committed portfolio occupancy stood at 99.4%, as at 31 Aug 2018, a mild decline from the preceding quarter (99.6%).
As for rental reversions, although this still came in negative for Paragon in FY18 (-3.7%), we are encouraged to see that the magnitude of decline has moderated over the quarters (1Q: -10.6%, 2Q: -7.1%, 3Q: -6.2%). For The Clementi Mall, rental reversions were positive at 3.0% for FY18. Overall portfolio rental reversions were -3.5% as the bulk of the NLA renewed/new leases signed came from Paragon.
Given the negative rental reversions at Paragon, its occupancy cost consequently declined from 19.6% in FY17 to 18.3% in FY18. We believe this would help to ensure the sustainability of the mall over the long run.
Occupancy cost for The Clementi Mall increased from 15.6% to 16.2%, but is still at a healthy level, in our view.

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The Rail Mall has 41.5% of its leases expiring (by gross rental income) in FY19. While this may pose concerns to some investors, we believe it also represents opportunities for SPH REIT to reinvigorate the mall as it intends to improve the tenancy mix further when the leases expire.
Management highlighted that it plans to introduce a set of programmes to increase footfall at the mall. This involves rolling out engaging activities, but is still subject to the authorities’ approval. Currently, ~40% of the The Rail Mall’s space is taken up by F&B tenants, and SPH REIT intends to keep this as the dominant trade sector going forward.
After fine-tuning our assumptions (more conservative longer-term rental rates and higher finance costs), we lower our fair value estimate from S$1.02 to S$0.99.

Wong Teck Ching Andy CFA OCBC Investment Research | https://www.iocbc.com/ 2018-10-12

SGX Stock Analyst Report HOLD Maintain HOLD 0.99 Down 1.020