800 Super Holdings Ltd - Phillip Securities 2018-09-03: Oversold!

800 SUPER HOLDINGS LIMITED SGX:5TG

800 Super Holdings Ltd - Oversold!

800 Super's FY18 revenue was within expectation.
Negative surprise of a 4Q18 loss dragged FY18 PATMI 25% lower than our estimate.
One quarter of loss during ramp-up is not representative of normalised business.
Overdone sell-down presents an opportunity to purchase mispriced stock.
Upgrade to BUY from Accumulate; new target price of $1.03 (previously $1.30).

Recall that the contract awarded by the Public Utilities Board was valued at S$133.65 million for a period of 15.5 years. This implies an average annual additional revenue of $8.6mn going forward.

Recall that the public waste collection (PWC) contract size of $193.5mn awarded by the National Environmental Agency is for a tenure of 7 years and 4 months (average annual additional revenue of $26.4mn going forward). The Pasir Ris–Bedok sector is an amalgamation of the former Pasir Ris–Tampines and Bedok sectors.
800 Super had already taken over the Pasir Ris–Tampines sector since July 2018, and will be taking over the Bedok sector in November 2018.

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Manpower cost is the largest cost component (53% of FY18 opex); and it came in 20% higher than expected for 4Q18 and consequently 4.6% higher than expected for FY18. (Refer to Appendix on Page 3 for further analysis.)

Debt/equity ratio increased substantially y-o-y from 64% to 105%. Current ratio has decreased y-o-y from 1.70x to 0.84x, resulting in a net current liability position.
Cash has decreased substantially y-o-y from S$25.1mn (16% of total assets) to S$5.6mn (3% of total assets). We had already forecasted a y-o-y weaker balance sheet, this is not a major surprise.

The lower payout ratio is likely due to capex requirements for the Pasir Ris–Bedok PWC contract that commenced in July 2018 (after the June financial year-end).

The laundry business remains loss-making. However, to put things in context, the goodwill represents only 0.2% of total assets.

The outlook is positive. In our recent reports, we had been stating our expectation of near-term PATMI weakness due to transitional ramp-up of new projects. The loss reported in 4Q18 is an aberration and the business has not changed structurally. This one quarter of loss is not reflective of future quarters, nor is it a precursor to deterioration of future earnings.
We are expecting 19%/55% y-o-y higher revenue/PATMI in FY19e, due to contributions from the sludge treatment facility and Pasir Ris–Bedok PWC contract. However, debt is expected to be higher due to capex on vehicles and bins to fulfil the PWC contract. Correspondingly, manpower cost and disposal charge will increase y-o-y in FY19e due to these two large projects.
Disposal charge is expected to trend higher over the next two quarters, in line with higher throughput at the sludge treatment facility. We expect 800 Super to turn free cash flow positive only in FY20e.
Opportunity: The commencement of the Pasir Ris–Bedok PWC contract puts 800 Super in a dominant position to bid more competitively than the former incumbents Veolia (Pasir Ris– Tampines) and SembWaste (Bedok) for the waste removal contracts with condominiums and commercial properties within the sector. This is a potential source of positive earnings surprise in subsequent periods.

Our target price gives an implied FY19e forward P/E multiple of 13.0x. As FY19e is transitional, we think that FY20e is a better representation of a normalised full year. We estimate 8.18 cents EPS and 7.84 cents free cash flow per share in FY20e.
The current price of 64 cents/share is 8.2x of FY20e free cash flow per share and gives a 3.1% dividend yield (based on our FY20e assumption of 2 cents).

Richard Leow CFA Phillip Securities Research | https://www.stocksbnb.com/ 2018-09-03

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