Singapore Banks - RHB Invest 2022-12-09: FY23 ROE To Trend Higher On NIM Tailwinds

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Singapore Banks - FY23 ROE To Trend Higher On NIM Tailwinds

After much volatility between April and September, Singapore banks – DBS, OCBC & UOB are approaching the end of 2022 with a decent 7% gain in share prices, outpacing the STI’s 4% rise.
While 2023 is expected to be a challenging year, we believe banks should continue to outperform the broader market, given the prospects of ROE improvement being driven by a further NIM expansion.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) expects GDP growth to cool down to 0.5-2.5% in 2023, from 3.5% in 2022F – with the challenging global environment expected to weigh heavily on Singapore’s export-oriented sectors.
The US 10-Year Treasury (UST-10Yr) yield has inverted, down 77bps to 3.45% since mid-Nov 2022, signalling expectations of an impending US recession.
RHB economists expect the Singapore economy to moderate slightly to 3.0% in 2023, from 3.7% in 2022. Although this is not the base case, RHB economists believe the balance of risks is tilted towards a technical recession in 2023.

The uncertain 2023 outlook, we believe, may see businesses turning cautious on their investment plans and households tightening their belts. This will likely accelerate the softening in loan demand, and suggests downside risks to our FY23F loan growth forecast of 5.0% y-o-y (FY22F: +5.8%).
SG Banks have seen a moderation in their lending business, with growth at 6% (annualised) in 9M22 vs +9.6% in 2021.

As expected, banks are seeing attrition in CASA deposits, with the recent rise in fixed deposit (FD) rates. While the intense deposit competition and declining CASA deposits would mean higher funding costs ahead, tailwinds from hikes in the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) in 2H22 and 1H23 should lift net interest income (NII) further in FY23.
For 9M22, sector NIM expanded by 20bps y-o-y. We believe DBS, which had a higher CASA ratio of 60.3% at end-3Q22, would be better positioned to deliver NIM improvement. UOB’s CASA ratio stood at 49.8% while OCBC’s was 56.1%.

Due to the COVID-19 health crisis, banks’ loan portfolios are now well seasoned. Sector NPL (non-performing loan) ratio has improved to 1.29% in 3Q22 from a high of 1.57% in 1Q20, and stress tests indicate that asset quality will be resilient, even at interest rates of 6-7%.
Still, banks are staying prudent, preferring not to release management overlays built up to ensure they have strong provision buffers to absorb any potential deterioration in asset quality. As at end-3Q22, non-performing assets coverage stood at a high 120% for DBS, 108% for OCBC and 98% for UOB.
We have conservatively pencilled in higher credit cost of 19bps for FY23F, compared to 14bps for FY22F.

Singapore Banks are well-positioned to weather the external headwinds. Aside from having a very comfortable provision coverage, banks also have robust capital buffers.
As at end-3Q22, DBS’ CET-1 ratio stood at 13.8% (14.4% for OCBC and 12.8% for UOB). This should enable banks to keep to their dividend payout plans.

Sector earnings to grow 20% y-o-y in FY23F, buoyed by further NIM expansion and a moderate rebound in non-II that would comfortably cushion the uptick in credit cost. This would lift sector ROE to 13.6%, from 12.0% in FY22F.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT, Top Picks: DBS and OCBC.
Key downside risks to our investment view are:
1. A sharper-than-expected downturn in global economies,
2. escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war that would further disrupt commodity exports and intensify inflationary pressures, as well as
3. a significant deterioration in asset quality.

Singapore Research RHB Securities Research | https://www.rhbgroup.com/ 2022-12-09

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