Singapore Exchange - Phillip Securities 2022-08-19: Growth Led By Newly Acquired Businesses

SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED (SGX:S68)

Singapore Exchange - Growth Led By Newly Acquired Businesses

Singapore Exchange (SGX)'s FY22 revenue of S$1.1bn was slightly below our estimates, at 94% of FY22e, while earnings of S$452mil met our estimates, at 99% of our FY22e. Variance came from lower-than-expected equity revenue due to lower treasury income. SGX's FY22 dividend was stable at S$0.32.

FICC and DCI grew 19%/3% y-o-y, led by an increase in OTC FX revenue and an increase in data and services subscriptions.
Excluding treasury income, revenue was up 7% y-o-y, driven by higher derivatives volumes across equities, currencies and commodities.
Equities – Cash & Derivatives was 4% higher y-o-y as higher trading and clearing revenue was offset by lower treasury income due to the lower net yield.
Upgrade SGX to BUY with a higher target price of S$11.71. Our target price is pegged to 26x FY23e P/E, +2 standard deviation of its 5-year mean. Catalysts include continued growth from new acquisitions and higher treasury income as the higher interest rates start to kick in.

With the acquisition of MaxxTrader in Jan 2022, SGX’s OTC FX (BidFX, MaxxTrader and Electronic Communication Network (ECN)) average daily volume grew 64% y-o-y to US$70.6bn with a target of US$100bn in the medium term, and contributed S$55mil, or 5%, to FY22 revenue. Consequently, FICC and DCI grew 23% and 3% y-o-y respectively to boost revenue growth.
Both businesses are expected to remain growth engines for SGX, with opportunities from cross-selling and new client acquisitions on the back of customer access to an enlarged trading network.

Excluding treasury income, revenue grew 7% y-o-y, lifted by higher trading and clearing revenues from equity derivatives, currencies, and commodities. Treasury and other revenue income dropped as treasury income was affected by lower yields from low interest rates.

Despite the introduction of HKEX’s MSCI China A50 Connect Index in Oct 2021, SGX’s FTSE China A50 contract saw increased volume, with growth of 9% y-o-y. SGX expects trading activity and open interest of the FTSE China A50 contract to continue growing as the international A-share market expands.
SGX’s Nifty 50 contract also showed increased volume and grew 14% y-o-y.

Equities – Cash revenue was 6% lower y-o-y mainly due to corporate actions and other revenue dipping 14% y-o-y and trading and clearing revenue decreasing 9% y-o-y as daily average traded value, total traded value and overall average clearing fees declined.
On the Equities – Derivatives side, treasury revenue was down 50% y-o-y to S$28.6mil mainly from treasury income, which declined primarily due to lower net yield. Nonetheless, this was offset by an increase of 22% y-o-y in trading and clearing revenue as equity derivatives volume increased 4% y-o-y and higher fees per contract of S$1.51 in FY22 (FY21: S$1.34), 13% higher y-o-y.
Overall, equities revenue was stable y-o-y at S$699mil and accounted for 64% (FY21: 66%) of revenue.

SGX remains committed to expanding its suite of products through strategic partnerships and new product development for newly acquired businesses.

SGX has guided FY23 expenses to grow 7-9% from FY21. This includes ~2% growth from the full year impact of the acquisition of MaxxTrader. The higher expenses are mainly from the buildout of their OTC FX business and higher staff costs from salary increments. With that, SGX expects medium-term expense guidance to remain at mid-single digit growth.

Apart from the banks, SGX is another beneficiary of higher interest rates, and treasury income is expected to recover with rising interest rates, with SGX’s management mentioning that the low treasury income is to remain for the following months, with only an uptick expected later in the year.
As at FY21, SGX reported a S$12bn float from collateral and S$72mil of interest income which represents 13% of FY21 operating profit. Based on our calculations, a 25 basis point rate hike would mean an increase of S$30mil in operating profit (or a 6% uplift).

Upgrade to SGX to BUY with a higher target price of S$11.71. Our target price remains pegged to +2 standard deviation of its 5-year mean or 26x P/E.
Catalysts include continued growth from new acquisitions and higher treasury income as economic conditions improve.
See

Glenn Thum Phillip Securities Research | https://www.stocksbnb.com/ 2022-08-19

SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY UPGRADE NEUTRAL 11.71 UP 10.780