Raffles Medical Group - Phillip Securities 2022-08-03: Huge Earnings Beat From Foreign Patients & Electives

RAFFLES MEDICAL GROUP LTD (SGX:BSL)

Raffles Medical Group - Huge Earnings Beat From Foreign Patients & Electives

Raffles Medical (SGX:BSL)'s 1H22 revenue and PATMI beat our estimates at 60% and 95% of our FY22e forecast respectively. 1H22 PATMI rose 51% y-o-y to $60mil. Earnings beat came from the recovery in foreign patients, return of elective treatments and more resilient COVID-19 related revenue.

Revenue in China rose 5%, driven by Chongqing hospital, while Shanghai was negatively impacted by a two-month lock-down in 1H22. Raffles has also received approval to set up an In-Vitro Fertilisation centre in Hainan, to be operational in 1Q23.
We raised our FY22e earnings forecast for Raffles Medical by 60% to S$100mil. The uncertainty and lack of visibility in COVID-19-related services will cause the largest swing in our forecast.
The major earnings drivers in 2H22 will be foreign patients, elective surgeries from local patients, increased visits at the GP clinics and higher prices. Weakness will come from lower COVID-19 testing and vaccination and fewer patients in COVID-19 treatment facility (CTF).
With the increased earnings, our DCF-based target price for Raffles Medical is raised from S$1.27 to S$1.46. We also raised our discount rate to 7.5% from higher risk-free assumptions. Our recommendation for Raffles Medical is raised from NEUTRAL to BUY.

Raffles Medical's 1H22 revenue expanded 11% y-o-y despite the decline in PCR testing services. Growth in 1H22 was driven by
1. higher foreign patients, now 60% of pre-pandemic levels;
2. return of elective treatments especially from elderly patients that had avoided hospitals during the pandemic;
3. more GP clinic visits from more unmasked events and greater brand awareness. The number of GP visits exceeds pre-pandemic levels;
4. COVID-19 related revenue was resilient with vaccinations still underway and higher patient load at the CTFs.

Operating margins surged 6 bps to 22.6%. Staff cost rose a slower 7% y-o-y and purchasing cost was down 23%. We believe the margin pick-up was due to higher revenue intensity from foreign patients.

Revenue in China rose 5% supported by Chongqing hospital volumes. Raffles hospitals in China are gaining more recognition, especially from the targeted upper middle income households. The Shanghai hospital was opened but lockdown affected the flow of patients and staff availability.

Raffles Medical's 1H22 free cash flow jumped S$80mil y-o-y to S123mil, due to higher profits, a decline in receivables and lower CAPEX. Net cash improved by S$100mil y-o-y to S$134mil as of June 2022.

We expect Raffles Medical's 2H22 revenue to be resilient, supported by foreign patient admissions, return of elective treatments, price increases and increased visits to GP clinics. The revenue drag will come from lower COVID-19 related services such as vaccination, testing and CTF (COVID treatment facility).
We believe Raffles Medical's losses in China will persist as Shanghai operations ramp up capacity and cost.

We raised our FY22e earnings forecast for Raffles Medical by 60%, with an 18% increase in revenue and a 5% point increase in margins. Our WACC was also nudged up by 0.4% points to 7.5% to account for the higher risk-free rate.
With the increased earnings, our DCF-based target price for Raffles Medical is raised from S$1.27 to S$1.46. We also raised our discount rate to 7.5% from higher risk-free assumptions. Our recommendation for Raffles Medical is raised from NEUTRAL to BUY.
See

Paul Chew Phillip Securities Research | https://www.stocksbnb.com/ 2022-08-03

SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY UPGRADE NEUTRAL 1.46 UP 1.270