DBS 1H22 - RHB Invest 2022-08-05: Robust NIM Expansion, Solid Asset Quality

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD (SGX:D05)

DBS 1H22 - Robust NIM Expansion, Solid Asset Quality

DBS's 1H22 earnings were within expectations, as positive NIM (net-interest margin) surprise offset non-II (non-interest income) weakness. FY22F earnings are projected to rise by a robust 21% on continued NIM expansion in 2H22 and benign credit cost compensates for still subdued non-II.

DBS's share price has retreated 10% in the past 6 months on rising macroeconomic concerns. With FY23 ROE projected to rise to 15%, the current 1.4x FY22F P/B valuation is compelling.
Stay BUY on DBS with new S$37.60 target price from S$38.10, 16% upside with ~4.5% FY22F yield.

DBS (SGX:D05)'s 1H22 earnings of S$3.62bn (-3% y-o-y) accounted for 47% and 49% of our and Street’s FY22F bottomline. Reported ROE was 13.3% (FY: 12.5%) while CET-1 was stable at 14.2%. An interim dividend of S$0.36 was declared.
In 2Q22, PPOP rose a modest 1% q-o-q, as robust NII growth of 12% q-o-q was negated by lower net fee income (-14%) and other non-II (-15%). CIR was stable at 43.7%.
With provisions down 16% q-o-q, net profit ticked up 1% q-o-q. Specific provisions (SP) credit cost was 8bps (1Q22: 15bps).

DBS expects US interest rates to peak at 3.5-4%, with inflation tempered and the US economy slipping into a mild recession. The flow-through to Asia is likely to be contained.
That said, management sees some tail risks from geopolitical developments in Russia-Ukraine and China. Consequently, loan growth guidance is dialled down to mid-single digit from an earlier target of mid-to-high single digit.

The bright spot remains tailwinds from sharper-and faster-than-expected hikes in the US Federal Funds Rate that will have a positive impact on NIM over two years. NIM, which has reached 1.80% in July (2Q22: 1.58%), is expected to rise above 2% by 4Q22. This compared with earlier guidance of 1.58-1.6% in FY22 with the exit rate at 1.8% (FY21: 1.45%). DBS reiterated that net interest income (NII) would rise by S$18-20m on every 1bp hike in US rates.

Management believes fee income has bottomed in 2Q22. That said, uncertainty in capital markets would continue to weigh on the wealth management business as investors stay side-lined. Overall, fee income is expected to decline y-o-y in FY22.

Non-performing assets (NPA) was little changed in 2Q22. NPL ratio was stable q-o-q at 1.27% and NPA coverage a comfortable 113% (4Q21: 116%). Having tightened its portfolios over the past two years, management believes customers would be able to absorb the higher interest rates.
DBS's exposure to China’s real estate sector is a small S$2bn with no stress detected. SP credit cost of 11bps in 1H22 is lower than FY22F guidance of 15-20bps (FY21: 12bps).

We raised FY22F-24F earnings forecast for DBS by 4-8% as we pencilled in higher NIMs, which helped offset downward revisions in non-II. Our target price for DBS is lowered to S$37.60 as we raised the equity risk premium for geopolitical tensions and recessionary risks.
Our target price for DBS incorporates a 4% ESG premium based on RHB’s in-house methodology.
See

Singapore Research RHB Securities Research | https://www.rhbgroup.com/ 2022-08-05

SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY MAINTAIN BUY 37.60 DOWN 38.100