CDL Hospitality Trusts - RHB Invest 2022-08-01: Positive Outlook But Risks Emerging

CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS (SGX:J85)

CDL Hospitality Trusts - Positive Outlook But Risks Emerging

1H operational numbers were broadly in line.
While CDL Hospitality Trusts’s key markets are staging a strong recovery on the back of pent-up demand, we see risks to travel recovery in 2023 from the worsening macroeconomic outlook, inflationary pressures and a drop in pent-up demand.

We see limited accretive acquisition opportunities, with gearing at 40% limiting debt headroom. Valuation has priced in the ongoing recovery, in our view, with the stock trading at 1x P/BV.

CDL Hospitality Trusts (SGX:J85)'s 2Q/1H22 NPI rose 55%/38% y-o-y on the back of a broad-based recovery across all its markets, except NZ, where its hotels are mainly used for government quarantine facilities, with rents paid depending on the actual occupancy. 9 of its 16 hotels have seen Jun 2022 revenue per available room (RevPAR) exceeding pre-pandemic Jun 2019 levels on the back of pent-up demand resulting in strong pricing power.
CDL Hospitality Trusts's management guided for a positive 3Q/2H22F outlook based on healthy forward bookings across its key markets – Singapore, Maldives and the UK. It expects asset values to remain largely firm despite rate hikes on the back of healthy demand for hospitality assets post COVID-19.

Singapore driving recovery (65% of portfolio value), with RevPAR surging 72% y-o-y, driven by an 85% increase in room rates. The recovery was much stronger in 2Q, post full reopening, resulting in strong pricing power for hoteliers from international travellers and staycation. CDL Hospitality Trusts was also able to maintain its margin despite inflationary pressures by increasing prices.
For 2H, only one of CDL Hospitality Trusts's six Singapore hotels will remain under government contract, but at a higher contracted rate than last year. Forward bookings as well as Singapore’s healthy event line up indicate a rosy 2H outlook, driven primarily by leisure demand, while management noted that corporate demand (multi-national corporations) remains soft.
Maldives, the UK and Europe were the bright spots in its overseas portfolio on the back of removal of quarantine restrictions. The impact on tourism from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and China’s Zero-COVID policy has been mitigated so far by strong demand from other markets (India, the US, Australia) and strong domestic demand in Europe.
On the other hand, Japan hotel performance remained soft on the back of slow and cautious reopening. While 3Q outlook remains largely positive, ongoing economic slowdown and a reduction in pent-up demand are likely to pose risks moving into 4Q.

Interests costs expected to jump by 50-70bps with ~26% or S$283m of GBP and EUR loans up for renewal in 2H. 64% of CDL Hospitality Trusts's loans are fixed currently. Overseas income is typically hedged in the 50-80% range.
See
We tweak our FY22F-24F DPU forecast for CDL Hospitality Trusts by -1 to -2% by adjusting interest costs. CDL Hospitality Trusts has an ESG score of 3.0 (out of 4.0) based on our proprietary in-house methodology. As this score is in line with the country median, no premium or discount is applied to our intrinsic target price.
Stay NEUTRAL and S$1.30 target price for CDL Hospitality Trusts, 4% downside.

Vijay Natarajan RHB Securities Research | https://www.rhbgroup.com/ 2022-08-01

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