ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST (SGX:HMN)
Ascott Residence Trust - Strong Recovery In RevPAU
- Recovery is underway as reflected in Ascott Residence Trust (SGX:HMN)'s 2Q22 results. Portfolio RevPAU of S$124 is ~82% of pre-COVID levels, up 91% y-o-y on the back of higher average daily rate and occupancy.
- Extended stay segment has been resilient with 95% occupancy and 8% expected rental growth for US student accommodations.
- Ascott Residence Trust announced private placement to raise S$170mil at S$1.120 to partially fund a proposed acquisition of serviced residence properties in France, Vietnam and Australia, rental housing properties in Japan and a student accommodation property in South Carolina, US for an aggregate purchase consideration of ~S$215.2million. Transaction is expected to be DPU accretive by 2.8%.
- No change in our FY22e forecast. Maintain ACCUMULATE recommendation on Ascott Residence Trust. DDM-target price for Ascott Residence Trust is maintained at S$1.24.
- The potential reopening of China and Japan to leisure travel are bright sparks.
Ascott Residence Trust - Investment thesis
- Strong recovery in portfolio RevPAU. Y-o-y improvement driven by both higher average daily rates (ADRs), which is up 50% y-o-y in 2Q22, and higher occupancy of ~70% in 2Q22 (2Q21: 55%).
- Ascott Residence Trust's portfolio RevPAU is currently at 82% of pre-pandemic levels and is expected to recover even further, with US, UK, Singapore and Australia leading the charge. In 2Q22, RevPAU for these countries came in at 86%, 100%, 97%, 96% of 2Q19 respectively, and are expected to maintain or even surpass pre-pandemic levels before the end of the year.
- Extended stay segment remains resilient, comprising ~20% of 1H22 gross profit. Ascott Residence Trust’s seven operating student accommodation properties in the USA and three rental housing properties in Japan acquired over the past year have strong average occupancy rate of over 95%. Pre-leasing at the US student accommodations for the next academic year is ~95% on average, with rental growth expected to come in at 8% y-o-y.
- The proposed acquisition of 9 properties in France, Japan, Vietnam, US and Australia will increase the proportion of longer-stay asset allocation from 17% to 19%, keeping Ascott Residence Trust on track to achieve its medium-term asset allocation target of 25-30%. Longer-stay accommodation offers income stability as the hospitality properties capture growth from recovering markets.
- High proportion of debts at fixed rate, ~79%, locked in for a weighted average of ~3 years. Of the 21% debt that is on floating rates, ~50% is denominated in US$, which is expected to be counter-balanced by ~20% of the debt which is denominated in JPY. Ascott Residence Trust has a low effective borrowing cost of 1.7%. An additional 25bp change in interest rates would have a ~1% impact on DPU.
Outlook
- Worldwide international tourist arrivals in 3Q22 are expected to pick up to 65% of pre-pandemic levels, indicative of a faster recovery compared with 1H22, which stood at 46%. The Americas and Europe are leading the recovery in long-haul travel, and the share of travel between the two regions has increased.
- Forward bookings indicate sustained pent-up demand, with more corporate and international travel returning, enabling Ascott Residence Trust’s properties to raise room rates and abate rising utility and labour costs.
- Electricity cost accounts for ~6% of OPEX. Most of Ascott Residence Trust’s electricity requirements have been hedged through fixed rate contracts. Electricity charges are passed through to tenants in US student accommodation and Japan rental housing properties, while utility usage above a certain threshold will be passed through to guests in long-staying SRs. Every 5% increase in utility cost is expected to impact Ascott Residence Trust's FY22e DPU by ~0.25%.
- In terms of capital management, Ascott Residence Trust’s gearing of 37.5% means a debt headroom of ~S$1.8bn, leaving room for it to reach its medium term asset allocation of 25-30% for longer-stay accommodation.
Maintain ACCUMULATE recommendation on Ascott Residence Trust
- No change in our FY22e forecast for Ascott Residence Trust.
- Ascott Residence Trust remains our top pick in this sector with its geographically diversified portfolio, range of lodging asset classes, stable income base and a strong sponsor.
- Catalysts include reopening of China and Japan to leisure travel, opportunistic divestments, and acquisitions of extended stay assets to raise the proportion of stable income sources to cushion the impact from recessionary concerns, rising inflation and macroeconomic uncertainties.
- See
Darren Chan
Phillip Securities Research
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https://www.stocksbnb.com/
2022-08-18
SGX Stock
Analyst Report
1.240
SAME
1.240
