CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust - Maybank Research 2022-01-30: Recovering, Recycling


CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust - Recovering, Recycling

Preferred recovery trade, BUY

  • CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX:C38U)’s revenue/ NPI/ DPU were up 2.1% h-o-h/ 1.4% h-o-h/ 0.8% h-o-h in 2H21, as contributions rose across its retail, office and integrated development assets. FY21 DPU at S$0.1040 was slightly behind our estimate but in line with the street.
  • Easing negative retail reversions, tailwinds from office sector recovery, and traction from improving NPI, suggest stronger fundamentals in FY22E.
  • CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust's balance sheet remains strong, and we see upside from acquisitions, as management escalates its capital recycling efforts, backed by its sponsor’s Singapore AUM.

Negative retail reversions to ease further

  • CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust's retail occupancy rose to 96.8% (from 96.4% in 3Q21) after falling since 4Q20, with better occupancies except for Clarke Quay (fell from 79.4% to 73.5%) and Plaza Singapura (98.1% to 97.3%). Rental reversion at -3.2% for FY21 improved from -4.5% in 1H21, and was better at its suburban malls at +0.2% (from -1.4% in 1H21) where signing leases are above pre-COVID levels, vs its downtown assets at -7.7% (from -8.9%).
  • Like peers, tenant sales in Dec were stronger at 85-105% of 2019 levels, vs 77-96% for FY21, and continued to track ahead of shopper traffic at 56-65%. We see room for recovery to strengthen with further easing of capacities in FY22.

Tailwinds from office recovery, rents to strengthen

  • CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust's office occupancy was lower at 91.5% (from 92.6% in 3Q21) mainly due to Capital Tower (from 97.2% to 76.8%) with JPM’s relocation to CapitaSpring, but advanced negotiation for 17.7% of the NLA should lift its occupancy to ~95% by end 1Q22. Leasing activity (at ~257k sf versus ~172k sf in 3Q21) rose from new and relocation demand, as committed occupancy improved at Asia Square Tower 2 and CapitaSpring to 95.6% and 91.5% (from 82.8% and 83.1% at end-Sep 2021).
  • Average rents rose 2.6% q-o-q to S$10.33 psfpm vs -1.8% q-o-q in 3Q21, and are likely to improve in FY22 against rising Grade A rents, while income contribution from CapitaSpring, 21 Collyer Quay and 6 Battery Road (post-AEI), should underpin DPU recovery.

Stepping up acquisitions in Singapore

Chua Su Tye Maybank Research | https://www.maybank-ke.com.sg/ 2022-01-30
SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY MAINTAIN BUY 2.550 SAME 2.550