DBS - Phillip Securities 2021-11-08: Higher Fees & Allowances Write-backs


DBS - Higher Fees And Allowances Write-backs

  • DBS (SGX:D05)'s 3Q21 earnings of S$1.7bn exceeded forecast due to reversal in general allowances. 9M21 PATMI is 83% of our FY21e forecast. 3Q21 dividend jumped 83% to S$0.33.
  • Asset quality stable, resulting in further GP write-backs of S$138mil. Management lowered full-year allowances to under S$100mil (9M21 allowance at S$19mil).
  • Maintain ACCUMULATE with a higher GGM target price of S$35.90, from S$32.00. We raise FY21e earnings by 3.9% as we lower allowances estimates for FY21e. We now assume 1.56x FY21e P/BV in our GGM valuation, up from 1.39x, as we raise our ROE estimates to 11.6%. DBS pays a 4.5% FY21e with earnings upside from higher interest rates.

The Positives

Fee income grew 11% y-o-y.

  • All fees rose by double digits from a year ago. WM fees rose 16% y-o-y with higher activity across a range of investment products. Transaction fees grew 18% y-o-y to a new high of S$239mil from increases in cash management and trade finance. Card fees rose 13% y-o-y as consumer spending continued to recover towards pre-pandemic levels.

Asset quality stable, resulting in further GP write-backs of S$138mil.

  • Repayment by weaker exposures and credit upgrades allowed DBS to write back GPs during the quarter. SPs fell 59% y-o-y to S$68mil due to a write-back for a non-performing loan. It lowered full-year allowances to under S$100mil (9M21 allowance at S$19mil) with credit cost likely to be under 20bps.
  • We believe full-year allowances will come under this guidance because of the Group’s asset quality. In light of its recent GP write-back, we cut total provisions for FY21e to S$19mil from S$309mil.

Loan growth up +9% y-o-y in 3Q21.

  • Loan growth was led by non-trade corporate loans with growth led by drawdowns in Singapore and Greater China. Housing and WM loan growth was sustained at the previous quarter’s levels. However, these increases were offset by a S$2bn decline in trade loans from higher repayments.
  • DBS's management’s guidance for FY21e loan growth remains unchanged at high-single digit.

The Negative

NIMs declined 2bps q-o-q to 143bps; full-year guidance now at the lower end of range.

  • NIM decline was a result of lower market interest rates as deposits grew 1% q-o-q to S$489bn. NII grew 1% q-o-q to S$2.1bn as higher loan and deposit volumes were moderated by lower NIMs. Management now expects FY21 NIMs to fall at the lower end of its guided range of 145-150bps.


Business momentum strong:

  • Despite economic uncertainties from Singapore’s return to Phase 2 (Heightened Alert), loans and transaction pipelines are expected to be strong. We lower allowance estimates for FY21e. Consequently, our earnings for FY21e rise by 3.9%.

Loans under moratorium:

  • Total loans under moratorium remains low at 0.5% of total loans, with no exposure in the rest of ASEAN, i.e., Malaysia, Indonesia. SME and mortgage loans under moratorium in Singapore are down to around S$100mil with no delinquencies. 80% of ESG loans in Singapore are paying both interest and principal with no pickup in delinquencies. The Group also has no exposure to real estate loans in Mainland China.

GP reserves sufficient:

  • With its capital position and liquidity – CET-1 ratio of 14.5% in 9M21 vs 13.9% in 9M20 – well above regulatory requirements and high allowance reserves, we believe the bank has sufficient provisions to ride out current economic uncertainties. DBS's 3Q21 dividend is S$0.33, back to pre-pandemic levels. We do not rule out special dividends.

Upside from higher rates:

  • DBS mentioned that a 10 bps rise in interest rates could raise PBT by $18m to $20mil (or PBT sensitivity of 0.3% for every 10bps). Assuming two rate hikes of 50bps next year, our FY22e PBT can climb S$1bn (or 14%).

Investment Action

Glenn Thum Phillip Securities Research | https://www.stocksbnb.com/ 2021-11-08