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Ascott Residence Trust - Maybank Kim Eng 2021-11-01: Adding Resiliency

ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST (SGX:HMN) | SGinvestors.io ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST (SGX:HMN)

Ascott Residence Trust - Adding Resiliency


Growing US student accommodation AUM, BUY

  • Ascott Residence Trust (SGX:HMN) has quickly scaled up its US student accommodation portfolio with a fourth acquisition since Feb 2021. While the property’s 4.5% entry EBITDA yield is lower than earlier deals (~5%), the asset is well-placed, with yield set to rise to 4.8% for academic year 2022 (AY2022).
  • RevPAU has risen further in 3Q21, underpinned by higher stable income, with the outlook improving and set to gain traction in FY22.
  • We have kept our forecasts and DDM-based target price for Ascott Residence Trust unchanged (COE 5.9%, LTG 2.0%).
  • We continue to like Ascott Residence Trust’s diversified portfolio, concentrated long-stay assets, strong balance sheet, acquisition momentum, and ~S$330m in residual divestment gains to support capital distributions amid slower DPU growth.



Asset well-placed, supports yield expansion

  • The US$83.3m (S$112.4m) freehold 218-unit/548-bed property named as Seven07, serves the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), a top US public school, backed by an 87% domestic, 56k total enrolment base that has grown at a 2% CAGR from 2010-2020, above the 1% national average. It opened in 2019, is fully occupied for AY 2021 on lease terms averaging one year and is ~50% pre-leased with ~8% y-o-y rental growth for AY2022.
  • The deal, funded by debt (45%) and proceeds from its recent placement (55%), is expected to deliver 1.2% DPU accretion.


Fundamentals improving, stable income on a rise

  • Portfolio RevPAU roseAscott Residence Trust's RevPAU recovery, on track but uneven, should strengthen with the reopening of international travel.


Strong balance sheet, further deal upside






Chua Su Tye Maybank Kim Eng Research | https://www.maybank-ke.com.sg/ 2021-11-01
SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY MAINTAIN BUY 1.300 SAME 1.300



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