Singapore Property Stocks - UOB Kay Hian 2021-09-17: Valuing CapitaLand Investment (CLI) Prior To Its 20 Sep Listing; Positive News For City Developments


Singapore Property Stocks - Valuing CapitaLand Investment (CLI) Prior To Its 20 Sep Listing; Positive News For City Developments

  • With CapitaLand Investment listing on the SGX on 20 September, we establish a sum-of-the-parts valuation for the company of S$3.64. This implies a 29% upside from CapitaLand’s valuation of CapitaLand Investment of S$2.823 as part of the consideration in its scheme of arrangement. We like CapitaLand Investment for its scalability through fee-related earnings and growth potential in its funds management business.
  • In other news, City Developments announced that it had finally jettisoned its troubled Sincere investment for US$1.00 to an unrelated party.
  • Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.

The end of the road for CapitaLand but the start of the journey for CapitaLand Investment (CLI).

City Developments’ (CDL) de-risking in China.

  • Last week, City Developments (SGX:C09) reported that it had sold its entire stake in Sincere to Sure Spread, an unrelated party registered in the Seychelles, for US$1.00. In addition, it announced that it had received an additional 15.4% stake in Shenzhen Tusincere Technology Park (STTP) as partial payment of a loan that is due to City Developments.
  • Post the two transactions above, City Developments now has zero interest in Sincere, and instead has a 100% stake in Shenzhen Tusincere Technology Park which owns 65% of the Shenzhen Tech Park (a China state-owned enterprise owns the remaining 35%).
  • Based on our estimates, City Developments’s loan exposure to Sincere has declined by S$30m-35m to S$82m-87m after receiving the 15.4% stake in Shenzhen Tusincere Technology Park as partial payment. Recall that City Developments had previously written down its equity stake in Sincere to zero.

CapitaLand Investment (CLI)'s Valuation

  • Our SOTP-based for CapitaLand Investment uses global comparable companies for the investment management and lodging segments. For the investment management segment, the comparables include Charter Hall, Goodman Group, Stockland, Mirvac, Home Consortium, Lendlease, ESR Cayman, Brookfield and Blackstone while lodging comps include Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, Wyndham, Choice, Accor and Whitbread. Our valuation for CapitaLand Investment’s listed REITs use a combination of UOB Kay Hian target prices and market prices, while the valuation for the company’s property investment segment and unlisted funds utilises adjusted RNAV and carrying value respectively as at end-1Q21.
  • Comps are admittedly difficult during this period of earnings uncertainty; however, we do not believe that the multiples that we have used are egregious as they are similar to those seen prior to COVID-19. Within the investment management segment, our 2022F P/E multiple of 18.4x is a slight premium over the 17.9x average in 2019 (ie pre-COVID-19); while for the lodging management segment, our 2022E EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.5x is a 25% discount to the 17.9x sector average seen in 2019.
  • As a recap, the implied consideration for CapitaLand shareholders was S$4.10. For every one CapitaLand share, eligible shareholders received:
    1. one CapitaLand Investment share which was valued at S$2.823,
    2. S$0.951 in cash, and
    3. 0.155 units of CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX:C38U) units.
  • New CapitaLand Investment (CLI) structure sharpens strategic focus. The privatisation of CapitaLand’s capital-intensive development business will allow it to focus on developing longer gestation projects and incubating new businesses that require more ‘patient’ capital. In addition, the company believes that listing its investment business will increase scalability through Fee Related Earnings (FRE) and Funds Under Management (FUM) growth.
  • The FRE business comprises fund management and lodging management with FUM totalling S$78.0b as at end-20 and an 11% 5-year CAGR. In terms of geography, CapitaLand Investment will focus on Asia Pacific real estate and REITs and business trusts. On the lodging side, CapitaLand Investment is a leading global serviced-residences manager (~80% of managed units are owned by third-parties), with a target to grow its units by 30% to 160,000 units by 2023.
  • CapitaLand Investment (CLI)’s real estate investments business comprises listed and unlisted funds as well as investment properties. As at 16 Sep 21, the value of its stakes in listed funds totalled S$7.9b, using a combination of UOB Kay Hian target prices and market prices. This unit is underpinned by stable distributions from CapitaLand Investment’s listed REITs and Business Trusts with sponsor stakes ranging from 16-35%. CapitaLand disclosed that its stakes in 25 unlisted funds had a carrying value of S$5.9b and FUM of S$26b as at end-20.

Risks For The Property Sector

  • COVID-19 risks particularly to the retail and hospitality business, and also potentially affecting residential sales momentum.
  • Slowdown in property markets in China due to negative halo effect of the Evergrande issue.
  • Rising interest rates could slow demand for development properties and reduce valuations for REITs.

Adrian LOH UOB Kay Hian Research | https://research.uobkayhian.com/ 2021-09-17
SGX Stock Analyst Report NOT RATED MAINTAIN NOT RATED 99998 SAME 99998