GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED (SGX:G13)
Genting Singapore - Political Risk In Yokohama Coming Down To The Wire
Maintain BUY call on Genting Singapore
- Campaigning for the Yokohama mayoral election started yesterday. The election itself will be held on 22 Aug 2021. Public sentiment does not favour an integrated resort (IR) but with the anti-IR forces split, we opine that the pro-IR incumbent may just win. If this were to happen, we maintain our view that Genting Singapore (SGX:G13)-Sega Sammy will prevail in the Yokohama IR RFP process.
- In our view, there is little downside risk as we gather that the market has not imputed any upside potential from a Yokohama IR.
Anti-IR Yokohama mayoral candidates aplenty but…
- 8 individuals are running as candidates in the Yokohama mayoral election. 6 are anti-IRs and 2 are pro-IRs. That said, pundits reckon that there are only 5 candidates that carry real heft. They are Fumiko Hayashi, Hachiro Okonogi, Takeharu Yamanaka, Yasuo Tanaka and Shigefumi Matsuzawa. Ms. Hayashi is the incumbent and pro-IR while the latter 4 are anti-IR. The winning candidate has to secure at least 25% of votes.
… if you can’t beat them, then divide them
- While 71% of Yokohama residents won the 2009/2013/2017 Yokohama mayoral elections with 45%/81%/53% of votes.
Pro-IR incumbent mayor may just prevail
- Thus, we gather that Ms. Hayashi may just win the Yokohama mayoral elections with < 50% of price for Genting Singapore imputes a S$0.30 contribution from a Yokohama IR (assumes 50% shareholding).
- See
Yin Shao Yang
Maybank Kim Eng Research
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https://www.maybank-ke.com.sg/
2021-08-09
SGX Stock
Analyst Report
1.160
SAME
1.160
