Asian Pay Television Trust - Phillip Securities 2021-03-08: 9.3% Yield While Waiting For 5G

ASIAN PAY TELEVISION TRUST (SGX:S7OU) | SGinvestors.io ASIAN PAY TELEVISION TRUST (SGX:S7OU)

Asian Pay Television Trust - 9.3% Yield While Waiting For 5G

  • Asian Pay TV Trust's 4Q20 revenue and EBITDA were within expectations, at 101%/99% of our FY20 forecasts.
  • 4Q20 cable subscribers contracted 7,000 q-o-q to 716,000. But ARPU was stable at NT$482.
  • FY20 capex was down 29% to S$51mn, bumping up adjusted FCF by S$21mn to a record S$67mn.
  • FCF of S$67mn to support DPU of S$0.01 for 9.3% prospective yields. 5G data backhaul still seen as a multi-year revenue opportunity. DPU of S$0.0025 per quarter will be maintained in FY21.
  • Our forecasts are largely unchanged.



What's New



The Positive


Adjusted FCF surged.

  • FY20 adjusted FCF rose S$29mn to S$67mn. EBITDA inched up to S$180mn but the largest improvement was a 29% or S$21m drop in capex. This is expected to provide ample cover for S$18mn of annual dividend payouts and to pare down debt.


The Negative


Core cable TV still shrinking.

  • Cable TV is its largest division, at 64% of revenue. Cable TV revenue expanded modestly by 2% y-o-y to S$195mn, aided by a 6.1% appreciation of the Taiwan dollar in FY20. 4Q20 subscriber churns were the largest in eight quarters. We think affordable cable prices of NT$482 or S$23 for 100 channels should still provide some downside support.

Outlook

  • Stable operating cash flows are expected to sustain quarterly dividends. Growth is anticipated from 5G data backhaul to mobile operators in Taiwan. No guidance has been provided but we expect a 14,000 fall in cable-TV subscribers in FY21e to be offset by a 15,000 increase in broadband subscribers.


Maintain BUY and target price of S$0.15






Paul Chew Phillip Securities Research | https://www.stocksbnb.com/ 2021-03-08
SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY MAINTAIN BUY 0.150 SAME 0.150



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