GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED (SGX:G13)
Genting Singapore - Really Good Vibes From Marina Bay Sands' 4Q20 Results
Maintain BUY call and S$0.95 DCF-based TP
- Marina Bay Sands (MBS) 4Q20 EBITDA doubled q-o-q on recovering mass market table and slot gross gaming revenue (GGR) q-o-q. We gather that Genting Singapore (SGX:G13)’s Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) will exhibit similar trends when it releases its 4Q20 results on 9 Feb 2021.
- We also do not discount the possibility that Genting Singapore will announce a final dividend then as we expect the ‘RWS2.0’ capex plan to be largely deferred.
- Maintain earnings estimates, BUY call and S$0.95 DCF-based target price for now.
Marina Bay Sands 4Q20 EBITDA doubled q-o-q
- Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) released 4Q20 results this morning. Marina Bay Sands (MBS)'s 4Q20 EBITDA surged 106% q-o-q to USD144m driven by 4Q20 mass market table GGR recovering 33% q-o-q and 4Q20 slot GGR recovering 26% q-o-q in USD terms.
- We gather the aforementioned was due to MBS being allowed to increase operating capacity from 25% to 50% from 18 Sep 2020. We also gather that MBS casino was also open to all guests from 9 Oct 2020. It was previously open only to Sands Rewards members.
Marina Bay Sands 2.0 capex also largely deferred
- Las Vegas Sands also announced that its USD3.3b ‘MBS 2.0’ capex plan will be largely deferred due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Its previous plan involved FY19A/ FY20A/ FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E/ FY24E capex of USD981m/ USD50m/ USD200m/ USD350m/ USD900m/ USD800m. Its revised plan involves FY19A/ FY20A/ FY21E/ FY22E/ FY23E/ FY24E/ FY25E capex of USD981m/ USD25m/ USD30m/ USD400m/ USD700m/ USD850m/ USD325m. In summary, Marina Bay Sands will defer heavy MBS 2.0 capex by a year to FY22E.
Positive read through for Genting Singapore's 4Q20 results
- Genting Singapore will release 4Q20 results on 9 Feb 2021. Gleaning insights from Marina Bay Sands' 4Q20 results, we gather that Resorts World Sentosa (RWS)'s 4Q20 mass market table and slot GGR will also recover q-o-q and boost 4Q20 EBITDA q-o-q (3Q20: S$130.3m).
- We also expect Genting Singapore to announce that its S$4.5b ‘RWS 2.0’ capex plan will be largely deferred. We do not discount the possibility that Genting Singapore will pay a final dividend as the aforementioned will ease pressure on its FY20A and FY21E cash flow generation.
- See Genting Singapore Share Price; Genting Singapore Target Price; Genting Singapore Analyst Reports; Genting Singapore Dividend History; Genting Singapore Announcements; Genting Singapore Latest News.
FY21E ought to be a lot better y-o-y
- Integrated resorts will be allowed to increase operating capacity from 50% to 65% from 28 Dec 2020. The first batch of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has arrived in Singapore and vaccinations have commenced. Singapore aims to vaccinate its entire population by end-FY21. This will instil confidence in Singaporeans to visit RWS again. We gather that they accounted for ~20%/~50% of pre-COVID-19 VIP/mass market GGR.
- Prime Minister Lee also stated that Singapore will gradually reopen its borders. This is important as we gather that Chinese, Malaysians and Indonesians accounted for ~80%/~50% of pre-COVID-19 VIP/mass market GGR.
Yin Shao Yang
Maybank Kim Eng Research
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https://www.maybank-ke.com.sg/
2021-01-28
SGX Stock
Analyst Report
0.950
SAME
0.950
