Singapore Consumer - DBS Research 2020-04-06: Retail Sales Shifting To Supermarkets

Singapore Consumer - DBS Research | SGinvestors.io DAIRY FARM INT'L HOLDINGS LTD (SGX:D01) SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD (SGX:OV8) KOUFU GROUP LIMITED (SGX:VL6) JUMBO GROUP LIMITED (SGX:42R) BREADTALK GROUP LIMITED (SGX:CTN)

Singapore Consumer - Retail Sales Shifting To Supermarkets

  • New COVID-19 circuit breaker measures will lead to even stronger supermarket sales.
  • Spending on grocery food items to remain robust as more of Spore’s workforce and students stay home.
  • February retail sales already showing a shift from discretionary to staples especially supermarkets.
  • Maintain positive stance on supermarkets and avoid higher end-restaurants.



New COVID-19 measures bode well for supermarkets and mass market food services.

  • With the circuit breaker measures announced, non-essential workplaces have been ordered to close from 7 April to 4 May to help to contain the spread of COVID-19. Food establishments and hawkers will remain open but only for takeaway or delivery services. This is positive for supermarkets and affordable mass market foodservices outlets. As people are encouraged to stay home as far as possible, we expect retail spending on food staples to strengthen further.


Supermarket sales to continue to be brisk after strong showing in Feb.

  • Retail sales in February declined by 8.6% y-o-y (-10.2% excluding motor-vehicles). Supermarkets bucked the trend, growing strongly by 15.5% y-o-y. Discretionary sales plunged, with sales for watches & jewellery, department stores, and apparel & footwear falling between 23-41% y-o-y.


Closure of workplaces and schools to increase demand for food at home.

  • We see a stronger shift of food consumption at workplaces and schools to homes during the next month. This will result in brisk sales at grocery retailers, F&B foodservice outlets near residential areas, and online channels.
  • On the other hand, this is a bane for restaurant operators as a significant number of Singapore’s workforce stays away from their workplace.


Reiterate BUY on supermarket plays and avoid restaurants.



See attached PDF report for complete analysis.






Alfie YEO DBS Group Research | Andy SIM CFA DBS Research | https://www.dbsvickers.com/ 2020-04-06
SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY MAINTAIN BUY 4.700 SAME 4.700
BUY MAINTAIN BUY 1.450 SAME 1.450
BUY MAINTAIN BUY 0.840 SAME 0.840
HOLD MAINTAIN HOLD 0.180 SAME 0.180
ACCEPT OFFER MAINTAIN ACCEPT OFFER 0.490 SAME 0.490



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