BRC Asia - UOB Kay Hian 2020-03-25: Slowdown Expected Although Robust Outlook In The Longer Term Remains

BRC ASIA LIMITED (SGX:BEC)

BRC Asia - Slowdown Expected Although Robust Outlook In The Longer Term Remains

The current lockdown in Malaysia adds a further strain as construction materials such as precast components are imported from Malaysia, impacting local supply that may run short. A slowdown is expected from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic due to project delays.
BRC Asia (SGX:BEC)’s prospects remain robust with the industry recovery intact in the longer term. We opine that public projects will likely come back into the fray once the virus outbreak subsides.

BRC Asia (SGX:BEC)’s management noted that volume deliveries have dropped 5-10% in Feb 20 with the outbreak of COVID-19. Projects have been delayed and this is largely expected, given the manpower crunch from the lack of China workers at construction sites in the preceding weeks.
Malaysia’s lockdown would add a further strain as complementary construction materials such as cement and pre-cast components are imported from Malaysia, and this has affected local supply. The worst-case scenario would be project cancellations although this appears unlikely for now.

Public-sector construction contracts awarded have slowed in 1Q20, possibly awaiting favourable operating conditions. We note that among large contracts awarded, the value accounted for in 1Q20 is only S$690m (as of 24 March), compared to a high of about S$1.6b in the previous quarter.
According to The Business Times, contractors are also increasingly seeking legal advice for relief on expected delays in construction projects. However, in the longer term, we still expect robust demand from public-sector projects, given the pipeline of works commissioned.

BRC Asia’s 1QFY20 net profit came in ahead of estimates, forming 35% of our full-year estimate.
Operating profit surged 104% y-o-y to S$15.5m, with a higher operating margin of 6.8% (4QFY19: 5.0%), contributed by continued cost savings from bulk purchases of raw materials.

According to BRC Asia forecasts, construction demand barring COVID-19 had been expected to remain strong in 2020, ranging S$28b-33b. Total construction demand expanded 9.5% y-o-y in 2019 to reach a 5-year high of S$33.4b.
Similarly, steel rebar demand is expected to increase in 2020. The sector is set to benefit from public-sector projects which make up for about 60% of the forecasted demand in 2020, spurred by major infrastructure projects such as the Integrated Waste Management Facility, Jurong Region MRT Line and Cross Island MRT Line, a sizeable proportion in the transport sector.
While project awarded appears to be delayed from COVID-19, we opine they will likely come back in the longer term.

The prolonged and widespread factory closures in China as well as travel restrictions have affected project progress. Contractors and builders have renegotiated on project deadlines while some contractors may also be vulnerable to cash flow issues if the situation persists.
We think that herein lies a proportionate risk, especially if smaller contractors fail to achieve their project progress claims and go under, possibly leading to bad debts for BRC Asia.

Lower earnings for FY20-22 by 2-5%. We factor in slower volume growth and up to two quarters of impact from COVID-19.

Maintain BUY with a lower target price of S$1.65, based on 11.5x FY20F PE, pegged to its long-term average mean (excluding outliers of > 2SD at 25x). The exclusion is primarily from the high base in FY17-18.
See BRC Asia Share Price; BRC Asia Target Price; BRC Asia Analyst Reports; BRC Asia Dividend History; BRC Asia Announcements; BRC Asia Latest News.

Lucas Teng UOB Kay Hian Research | Llelleythan Tan UOB Kay Hian | https://research.uobkayhian.com/ 2020-03-25

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