Singapore Market Strategy - DBS Research 2019-08-01: Thirteen In A Row?

Singapore Market Strategy - DBS Group Research | SGinvestors.io SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD (SGX:S63) CHINA EVERBRIGHT WATER LIMITED (SGX:U9E) MANULIFE US REIT (SGX:BTOU) KEPPEL-KBS US REIT (SGX:CMOU) KOUFU GROUP LIMITED (SGX:VL6)

Singapore Market Strategy - Thirteen In A Row?




August the seasonally weakest month

  • The Straits Times Index (STI) had ended the month of August down on a m-o-m basis for the past 12 consecutive years with a median return of -2.85% m-o-m.
  • We observed that the Singapore market tends to peak in late July, falling through August before bottoming in early September.


5 reasons this August should be negative again

  1. Earnings downward revision risk is present as a weak 2Q results season is expected;
  2. Index heavyweights SingTel (SGX:Z74) and banks consolidate after going ex-dividend;
  3. No FED meeting, no ‘dovish FED’ trade;
  4. SGD is weakening against the USD heading to the October MAS policy meeting; and
  5. HK civil unrest could worsen before getting better.
  • We expect the STI to pull back to 3245-3275. If 3245 fails, a further dip to 3180 is seen.


Prefer stocks with high earnings visibility, yield and growth



Rebound in USDSGD positive for USD-denominated stocks



IF HK civil unrest worsens/drags on






Kee Yan YEO CMT DBS Group Research | Janice CHUA DBS Research | https://www.dbsvickers.com/ 2019-08-01
SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY MAINTAIN BUY 4.500 SAME 4.500
BUY MAINTAIN BUY 0.490 SAME 0.490
BUY MAINTAIN BUY 1.000 SAME 1.000
BUY MAINTAIN BUY 0.900 SAME 0.900
BUY MAINTAIN BUY 0.850 SAME 0.850



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