Ascott Residence Trust - Phillip Securities 2019-05-06: A Promising Start To The Year

ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST (SGX:A68U) | SGinvestors.io ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST (SGX:A68U)

Ascott Residence Trust - A Promising Start To The Year

  • ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST (SGX:A68U)'s 1Q19 NPI and DPU in line with our forecast.
  • Higher leisure and corporate demand in SG, UK and Philippines.
  • Japan and Australia doing well despite strong competition.
  • Sale of Ascott RP and lower rents on France ML reduces income from “stable” sources.
  • Maintain BUY; target price of $1.36 unchanged.



The Positives


 Higher leisure and corporate demand in SG, UK and Philippines.

  • SG and UK are part of Ascott Residence Trust’s 8 key markets and contributed 10% and 11% of gross profit in 2018 (Philippines contributed 3%).
  • Despite the cautious tourism outlook for 2019 and lack of biennial events this year, SG international visitor arrivals (IVA) in 1Q19 increased 1% y-o-y. It is likely to surpass the projected 3% growth for the year (2018 IVA growth: +6% y-o-y).
  • The assets in SG and UK under the more “stable” leases (master lease and management contract with minimum guaranteed income(MCMGI)) were able to capture a modest amount of upside (gross profit +18%/+17% y-o-y for SG/UK) while the properties under management contracts (MC) saw gross profit increase by 22%/62% y-o-y in SG/ Philippines (post-AEI).

 Japan and Australia doing well despite strong competition.

  • We were cautious about RevPAUs taking a hit due to substantial room supply hitting these markets. However, performance in these two markets held up better than anticipated with RevPAUs and gross profit increasing 8%/4% y-o-y and 4%/3% y-o-y for Japan and Australia respectively.


The Negatives


 Negative reversions on France master lease and sale of Ascott RP reduce income from “stable” sources.

  • Contribution from “stable” sources expected to fall 200bps from 44% in FY18 to 42% in FY19.


Outlook

  • Better performance is expected from US and Indonesia due to higher RevPAUs post-AEI, driven by higher occupancy and average daily rates (ADRs). The two assets undergoing AEI, Element NY Times Square and Somerset Grand Citra Jakarta, are slated for completion in 2Q19.


Maintain BUY; unchanged target price of $1.36

  • We reiterate our BUY on Ascott Residence Trust due to geographical diversification, upside exposure from management contracts and ability to acquire accretively due to S$880mn debt headroom and low cost of funding (2.3%). This translates to a dividend yield of 5.9% and a FY19e P/NAV of 0.88.





Tara WONG Phillip Securities Research | https://www.stocksbnb.com/ 2019-05-06
SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY MAINTAIN BUY 1.360 SAME 1.360



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