CapitaLand Retail China Trust - OCBC Investment 2019-04-26: Positive On Wuhu Divestment

CAPITALAND RETAIL CHINA TRUST (SGX:AU8U)

CapitaLand Retail China Trust - Positive On Wuhu Divestment

CAPITALAND RETAIL CHINA TRUST (SGX:AU8U)'s results were within expectations. In RMB terms, 1Q19 revenue grew 4.5% y-o-y due to stronger rental growth from core multi-tenanted malls, offset by lower revenue from CapitaMall Wuhu which is in the process of being divested. In SGD terms, 1Q19 revenue grew by a more muted 1.1% y-o-y to S$56.0m due to a weaker RMB.
There was a full-quarter contribution from the Rock Square joint venture of S$2.6m vs. the partial quarter distribution of S$1.2m in 1Q18. Income available for distribution to unitholders grew 4.9% y-o-y to S$24.9m. Meanwhile, capital distribution fell from S$3.0m in 1Q18 to S$1.0m. As a result, total distributable amount to unitholders fell 3.1% y-o-y to S$25.9m.
CapitaLand Retail China Trust's 1Q19 DPU before capital distribution grew 2.0% y-o-y to 2.49 S cents, while DPU after capital distribution dropped 5.8% y-o-y to 2.59 S cents or 25.3% of our initial full-year forecast.

We are positive on the capital recycling efforts by the REIT manager to strengthen the portfolio. On Mar 29, the REIT manager announced the divestment of 51.0% interest in CapitaMall Wuhu. While CapitaMall Wuhu makes up less than 1% of the portfolio, we see the sale as a positive given that the asset has been posting NPI losses since FY15.
In addition, we are looking forward to the bundle deal announced earlier this year: the divestment of CapitaMall Saihan and the acquisition of another Hohhot asset, Yuquan Mall, located across the street. The new mall is double the size of CapitaMall Saihan and has a longer land lease balance tenure. Disruption to cash flows will be minimized as the divestment of CapitaMall Saihan will take place after the new mall is operational in 2H20.

CapitaLand Retail China Trust's portfolio occupancy remained high at 97.4%. Growth in shopper traffic remains healthy at +14.0% y-o-y. For the quarter, rental reversions for the portfolio remained strong at +9.5% for leases signed during the quarter (which made up 3.2% of the portfolio’s NLA). This figure excludes leases involving new concepts and area reconfiguration – including these, the rental reversion for the quarter would be +0.6%. See report appendix for more details.
Looking ahead, we find recent operational figures reassuring, but note that the weaker RMB y-o-y will negatively affect results in SGD terms for the second quarter.
Currently, about 80% of CapitaLand Retail China Trust’s debt is on fixed interest rates, while ~80% of distributable income is hedged into SGD. As at 25 Apr’s close, CapitaLand Retail China Trust is trading at a FY19F yield of 6.8%.
After adjustments and using a lower risk-free rate of 2.3% (2.7% previously), our fair value increases from S$1.42 to S$1.50. We maintain HOLD on CapitaLand Retail China Trust.

Deborah Ong OCBC Investment Research | https://www.iocbc.com/ 2019-04-26

SGX Stock Analyst Report HOLD MAINTAIN HOLD 1.50 UP 1.420