Navigating Singapore - CGS-CIMB Research 2018-11-29: Analysts Top Picks 2019

2019 Singapore Top Stock Picks ~ CGSCIMB Research | SGinvestors.io CAPITALAND LIMITED (SGX:C31) CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS (SGX:J85) CAPITALAND MALL TRUST (SGX:C38U) CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED (SGX:C09) COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD (SGX:C52) GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED (SGX:G13) SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (SGX:U96) SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD (SGX:S63) OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP (SGX:O39) SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD (SGX:OV8) CSE GLOBAL LTD (SGX:544) CHINA SUNSINE CHEM HLDGS LTD. (SGX:CH8) HRNETGROUP LIMITED (SGX:CHZ) Y VENTURES GROUP LTD. (SGX:1F1) SILVERLAKE AXIS LTD (SGX:5CP)

Navigating Singapore - Analysts Top Picks 2019

  • Analysts large-caps top picks: CapitaLand, CapitaLand Mall Trust, CDL Hospitality Trusts, City Developments, ComfortDelGro, Genting Singapore, Sembcorp Industries, OCBC Bank, ST Engineering, Sheng Siong Group. 
  • Analysts small-caps top picks: China Sunsine, CSE Global, HRnetGroup, Silverlake Axis, Y Venture Group. 



ANALYSTS TOP PICKS (LARGE CAPS)


CAPITALAND LIMITED (SGX:C31)  Capitaland (SGX:C31) Share Price  Capitaland (SGX:C31) Target Price  Capitaland (SGX:C31) Analyst Reports  Capitaland (SGX:C31) Corporate Actions  Capitaland (SGX:C31) Announcements  Capitaland (SGX:C31) Latest News  Capitaland (SGX:C31) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$3.55)

  • Locked in ROE of 6.9% for 9M18, on track to reach 8% annual target for 2018. Strong capital deployment with S$4.1bn of divestments and S$6.1bn of new investments YTD to drive forward ROE expansion.
  • Strong residential contributions in 4Q underpinned by high China handover. Replenished Singapore inventory with the purchase of two sites which can yield a total 1,500 units.
  • 80% of income profile is derived from recurrent sources coming from rental income from malls operations and fee income from its serviced residence business.

CAPITALAND MALL TRUST (SGX:C38U)  Capitaland Mall Trust (SGX:C38U) Share Price  Capitaland Mall Trust (SGX:C38U) Target Price  Capitaland Mall Trust (SGX:C38U) Analyst Reports  Capitaland Mall Trust (SGX:C38U) Corporate Actions  Capitaland Mall Trust (SGX:C38U) Announcements  Capitaland Mall Trust (SGX:C38U)Latest News  Capitaland Mall Trust (SGX:C38U) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$2.29)

  • Expect CapitaLand Mall Trust (CMT) to post the strongest DPU growth among the retail SREITs in the next two years driven by the opening of Funan.
  • Expect Funan to perform relatively well given that it will be the first offline-online mall in Singapore. Westgate, in which the trust recently acquired the remaining 70% stake, should also start contributing more substantially as the mall’s performance gradually improves.
  • CapitaLand Mall Trust has demonstrated that it is at the forefront of the industry by making Funan the first online-offline mall in Singapore and creating a “phygital” multi-concept store at Plaza Singapura. We believe it will learn ahead of its peers and remain competitive.

CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS (SGX:J85)  CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX:J85) Share Price  CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX:J85) Target Price  CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX:J85) Analyst Reports  CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX:J85) Corporate Actions  CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX:J85) Announcements  CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX:J85)Latest News  CDL Hospitality Trust (SGX:J85) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$1.63)

  • Earnings growth in FY19 will be driven by
    1. the completion of refurbishment of Orchard Hotel in 1Q19,
    2. reopening of the rebranded Maldives Resort by end- 2018, and
    3. the absence of booking cancellations due to the Trump-Kim event.
  • Singapore RevPAR should improve in tandem with the lower supply of hotel rooms in 2019 and stronger tourist arrivals.
  • We see CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLHT) as the proxy to the recovering hospitality sector in Singapore. An acquisition by year-end or early- 2019 would catalyse the stock.

CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED (SGX:C09)  City Developments (SGX:C09) Share Price  City Developments (SGX:C09) Target Price  City Developments (SGX:C09) Analyst Reports  City Developments (SGX:C09) Corporate Actions  City Developments (SGX:C09) Announcements  City Developments (SGX:C09) Latest News  City Developments (SGX:C09) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$10.65)

  • Locked in pre-sales of S$1.56bn for 9M18, -12% y-o-y, to be recognised over the next 2-3 years. Plans to roll out up to 1,754 new units in 2019.
  • Strategic plans to grow, enhance and transform its asset portfolio and business operations including improving asset returns. City Developments has set a 10-year target to achieve S$900m of recurring EBITDA, 50% higher than the end- FY17 level of S$599m.
  • New UK office acquisition will boost rental income but hotel operating conditions remain challenging.

COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD (SGX:C52)  ComfortDelGro (SGX:C52) Share Price  ComfortDelGro (SGX:C52) Target Price  ComfortDelGro (SGX:C52) Analyst Reports  ComfortDelGro (SGX:C52) Corporate Actions  ComfortDelGro (SGX:C52) Announcements  ComfortDelGro (SGX:C52) Latest News  ComfortDelGro (SGX:C52) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$2.74)

  • At 14.2x 12M forward P/E, ComfortDelGro is trading below its 10-year average of 15.8x; this appears unwarranted given that earnings recovery is gaining traction, in our view.
  • Robust balance sheet with S$44m in net cash, supporting further synergistic acquisitions ahead.
  • Key catalysts include stronger-than-expected recovery in ComfortDelGro's taxi operations amid entrant of Go-JEK and post enhanced income incentives from Grab.

GENTING SINGAPORE LIMITED (SGX:G13)  Genting Singapore (SGX:G13) Share Price  Genting Singapore (SGX:G13) Target Price  Genting Singapore (SGX:G13) Analyst Reports  Genting Singapore (SGX:G13) Corporate Actions  Genting Singapore (SGX:G13) Announcements  Genting Singapore (SGX:G13) Latest News  Genting Singapore (SGX:G13) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$1.28)

  • At 6.3x forward EV/EBITDA, Genting Singapore (GENS) is once again trading below its 5-year average of 10x.
  • We believe the market is pegging GENS to trough valuations of end-FY15-16 when adjusted EBITDA was below S$900m, trade receivable impairments were above S$230m-260m p.a., and receivables balance was above S$200m; which is unwarranted, given all these factors are now on relatively firmer footing, in our view.
  • Dividends in 4Q and sustained EBITDA recovery are near-term catalysts. A successful bid for a Japan casino licence in 2H19F is a mid-to-long term catalyst.

OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP (SGX:O39)  OCBC Bank (SGX:O39) Share Price  OCBC Bank (SGX:O39) Target Price  OCBC Bank (SGX:O39) Analyst Reports  OCBC Bank (SGX:O39) Corporate Actions  OCBC Bank (SGX:O39) Announcements  OCBC Bank (SGX:O39) Latest News  OCBC Bank (SGX:O39) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$14.00)

  • Trading at 1.1x CY18F P/BV (below its long-term mean of 1.4x), OCBC is a relative pick among banks given its more attractive valuation and 12.5% CY18F ROE. Further upside from NIMs will come from the repricing impact of SG and HK mortgages.
  • OCBC Bank remains positive on capturing market share in Greater China despite the projected slowdown of this region in FY19 amid rising US/China trade tensions. HK/China loans comprise 26% of its loan book (DBS: 31%, UOB: 15%).
  • Dividend payout ratio is maintained at 40-50%.

SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD (SGX:U96)  Sembcorp (SGX:U96) Share Price  Sembcorp (SGX:U96) Target Price  Sembcorp (SGX:U96) Analyst Reports  Sembcorp (SGX:U96) Corporate Actions  Sembcorp (SGX:U96) Announcements  Sembcorp (SGX:U96) Latest News  Sembcorp (SGX:U96) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$3.49)

  • Maintain ADD and SOP-based Target Price of S$3.49. We like Sembcorp Industries as a late-cycle play for investors who wish to seek shelter in utilities names. Valuations for its utilities business are not expensive at 0.5x CY18F P/BV vs. ROE of c.6%. We are forecasting its utilities earnings to grow 26% y-o-y in FY19F, driven by UK and India.
  • We expect the 15-year PPA to sell 250MW to Bangladesh to kick in in 2019F. This represents c.19% of SGPL’s 1,320MW installed capacity. We are also sanguine on maiden contributions from a string of mini power plants from the UK (UKPR) totalling 533MW in installed capacity of modular natural gas generation. In 1H19F, UKPR will have a total of 813MW in operation, with the capacity expansion comprising gas and battery power generators.
  • In line with its group strategic review, Sembcorp Industries has been on a slew of mini-divestments in an effort to recycle capital. We think the question of whether to keep or divest Sembcorp Marine could surface and be a stock catalyst.

SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD (SGX:OV8)  Sheng Siong (SGX:OV8) Share Price  Sheng Siong (SGX:OV8) Target Price  Sheng Siong (SGX:OV8) Analyst Reports  Sheng Siong (SGX:OV8) Corporate Actions  Sheng Siong (SGX:OV8) Announcements  Sheng Siong (SGX:OV8) Latest News  Sheng Siong (SGX:OV8) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$1.25)

  • Sheng Siong is set to achieve a record number of supermarket openings in FY18. The stock currently trades at 19.5x, slightly below its 3-year mean of 20x.
  • Sheng Siong boasts a strong balance sheet with a net cash position of S$67.1m. It managed to lift its GPM higher to 26.5% in 3Q18 (vs. 26.1% in 3Q17).
  • End-CY18F store count has grown to 54 (vs. 44 at end- FY17). Open supermarket tender pipeline is still robust, with at least 9 supermarket opportunities expected till end-FY19F.
  • We favour Sheng Siong as we believe the revenue from new stores opened in FY18 will help mitigate any volatilities from forward same-store-sales growth (SSSG).

SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING LTD (SGX:S63)  ST Engineering (SGX:S63) Share Price  ST Engineering (SGX:S63) Target Price  ST Engineering (SGX:S63) Analyst Reports  ST Engineering (SGX:S63) Corporate Actions  ST Engineering (SGX:S63) Announcements  ST Engineering (SGX:S63) Latest News  ST Engineering (SGX:S63) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$3.94)

  • We like ST Engineering for its defensive earnings profile supported by structural tailwinds from all divisions, either from multi-year maintenance contracts or firm relationships with government agencies and defence companies.
  • We believe ST Engineering is also relatively insulated from trade tensions. By division, we think electronics and land systems are the most shielded, thanks to defence and government contracts and smart city, cyber security and urbanisation trends. Marine and aerospace may be more affected because of its significant operations in the US but cushioned by diversified geographical spread of operations between Asia and US.
  • ST Engineering is trading below its 10-year average of 19x P/E. The market could reward the company for delivering steady growth amidst margin expansion on the back of strict cost controls. Failure to complete the acquisition of MRAS is a key risk. Our Target Price of S$3.95 is based on blended valuations.



ANALYSTS TOP PICKS (SMALL CAP)


CHINA SUNSINE CHEM HLDGS LTD. (SGX:CH8)  China Sunsine (SGX:CH8) Share Price  China Sunsine (SGX:CH8) Target Price  China Sunsine (SGX:CH8) Analyst Reports  China Sunsine (SGX:CH8) Corporate Actions  China Sunsine (SGX:CH8) Announcements  China Sunsine (SGX:CH8) Latest News  China Sunsine (SGX:CH8) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$1.41)

  • Sunsine is boosting its capacity by 13% to 172,000 tons of rubber chemicals in FY19F to meet demand as it is currently running at c.98% utilisation.
  • Signs of ASPs stabilising in Oct should offer some respite and could support gross margins sustaining at c.30% in FY19F.
  • The stock appears cheap at 7x 12M forward P/E (ex-cash 4x) with net cash of S$0.33/share, as we believe that the negatives from declining auto sales in China have been priced in.

CSE GLOBAL LTD (SGX:544)  CSE Global (SGX:544) Share Price  CSE Global (SGX:544) Target Price  CSE Global (SGX:544) Analyst Reports  CSE Global (SGX:544) Corporate Actions  CSE Global (SGX:544) Announcements  CSE Global (SGX:544) Latest News  CSE Global (SGX:544) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$0.50)

  • Currently trading at 11.8x CY18F P/E vs. our target of 13.5x (based on historical 5-year mean). CSE Global is in net cash (3Q18: 6.7Scts/share), with a committed FY18 DPS of 2.75 Scts, implying c.6% dividend yield.
  • In 3Q18, gross margin (GPM) edged up to 27.5% (vs. 2Q18 GPM of 26.9%). CSE expects GPM to stabilise at 26-27% in FY18F, enabling it to stay in earnings recovery mode.
  • Order wins will be steady with continued “flow contracts”. In the longer term, the collaboration with Serba Dinamik could lead to downstream O&G, power and utilities contracts from the Middle East and Malaysia.

HRNETGROUP LIMITED (SGX:CHZ)  HRnet Group (SGX:CHZ) Share Price  HRnet Group (SGX:CHZ) Target Price  HRnet Group (SGX:CHZ) Analyst Reports  HRnet Group (SGX:CHZ) Corporate Actions  HRnet Group (SGX:CHZ) Announcements  HRnet Group (SGX:CHZ) Latest News  HRnet Group (SGX:CHZ) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$1.10)

  • HRnetGroup is the only SGX-listed proxy for the labour markets in China and Singapore. We also like HRnetGroup's asset-light and fairly defensive business model, with the twin earnings growth engines of professional recruitment and flexible staffing.
  • Net cash of S$275m (at end 3Q18) is available to fund North Asian expansion, with potential 16-22% earnings upside from M&As not factored in.
  • HRnetGroup currently trades at 13.7x CY19F P/E (9x ex-cash), at a 20-50% discount to peers. The stock also offers a c.3% dividend yield based on 50% payout.

SILVERLAKE AXIS LTD (SGX:5CP)  Silverlake Axis (SGX:5CP) Share Price  Silverlake Axis (SGX:5CP) Target Price  Silverlake Axis (SGX:5CP) Analyst Reports  Silverlake Axis (SGX:5CP) Corporate Actions  Silverlake Axis (SGX:5CP) Announcements  Silverlake Axis (SGX:5CP) Latest News  Silverlake Axis (SGX:5CP) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$0.56)

  • Silverlake Axis' 1QFY6/19 EBITDA margin expanded to 47.5% (1Q18: 33.4%) resulting from higher-margin licensing revenue.
  • Key catalysts include major order wins amid the digitalisation trend in ASEAN’s banking sector that could further boost its order backlog of RM320m as at end-Sep.
  • Silverlake is trading at 15.8x 12M forward P/E, below its historical average of 18.2x and at a c.20% discount to its regional peers’ average of 19.6x.

Y VENTURES GROUP LTD. (SGX:1F1)  Y Ventures (SGX:1F1) Share Price  Y Ventures (SGX:1F1) Target Price  Y Ventures (SGX:1F1) Analyst Reports  Y Ventures (SGX:1F1) Corporate Actions  Y Ventures (SGX:1F1) Announcements  Y Ventures (SGX:1F1) Latest News  Y Ventures (SGX:1F1) Blog Articles (Rating: ADD, Target Price: S$0.56)

  • Y-Venture (YVEN) turned profitable in 1H18 and we anticipate further earnings growth of more than 100% in FY19F as YVEN continues to tap on the burgeoning e-commerce market.
  • Key catalysts include stronger-than-expected earnings and on-boarding of more branded partners.
  • Y-Venture is trading at 15x FY19F P/E, a c.50% discount to global e-commerce peers.





LIM Siew Khee CGS-CIMB Research | https://research.itradecimb.com/ 2018-11-29
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