SingTel - DBS Research 2018-11-08: Earnings May Have Bottomed Out In 1H19

SINGTEL (SGX:Z74) | SGinvestors.io SINGTEL (SGX:Z74)

SingTel - Earnings May Have Bottomed Out In 1H19

  • Underlying earnings of S$715m (-2% q-o-q,-22% y-o-y) was 12% below our estimate of S$811m mainly due to weak Singapore contribution; FY19F/20F EPS cut by 3%.
  • Singtel affirming its FY19F guidance implies pick up in 2H19F EBITDA from – ICT revenue and cost savings.
  • BUY with lower Target Price of S$3.59 for assured 17.5Scts DPS (5.6% yield) and FY19F-21F EPS CAGR of 7%; Attractive valuation of 16x FY20F PE, representing -1 SD of historical average at 17x.

What’s New

Underlying earnings below expectations; surprise largely stemmed from a weak Singapore.

  • Singtel’s underlying profit of S$715m (-2% q-o-q, -22% y-o-y) was ~12% below our expectation of ~S$811m.
  • Almost 60% of the miss came from Singapore with underlying profit dropping to S$225m (-17% q-o-q, -18% y-o-y) versus our expectation of stable profit.
  • The balance of the miss (30%) came from associates with underlying profit of S$377m (-2% q-o-q, -23% y-o-y) versus S$404m estimate as higher depreciation and amortisation charges weighed on contributions from AIS, and Globe recorded a sequentially weak quarter. Telkomsel recovered strongly to more than offset the weakness of Bharti, largely expected.
  • Higher withholding taxes of S$36m vs. our expectations of S$16m further pulled underlying net profit lower.

Guidance for stable FY19F EBITDA from core business despite 1% y-o-y drop in 1H19, implies pick up in 2H19F.

  • The guidance assumes AUD/SGD of S$1.05 versus S$1.00 now and excludes National Broadband Network (NBN) migration fee in Australia. 
  • Two key drivers in 2H19F would be
    1. rebound in Infocomm Technology (ICT) revenue with ~S$300m of additional ICT revenue versus 1H19 from Smart Nation contracts;
    2. S$300m of cost savings in 2H19F versus S$193m cost savings in 1H19.
  • However, we have trimmed FY19F/20F EBITDA from the core markets by 2% each to factor weaker Singapore contribution, leading to 3% cut in FY19F/20F EPS.

Singapore disappointed due to three key reasons.

  1. S$13m sequential drop in Singapore consumer EBITDA due to drop in mobile service revenue
  2. Amobee recording negative EBITDA of S$10m (vs. breakeven in 1Q19) with the consolidation of losses of the Videology
  3. ~S$5m sequential drop in Singapore enteprise EBITDA due to weak ICT revenue and rise in costs.

BUY with revised Target Price of S$3.59.

  • We lowered our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation to S$3.59 as we cut FY19F/20F EBITDA in Singapore by 4% each. See the breakdown on SOTP in the PDF report attached. 
  • Reiterate our BUY call on the back of a rebound in associate contributions in FY20F led by Telkomsel, AIS and Globe. attractive valuations, and ~5.6% dividend yield.

Sachin MITTAL DBS Group Research | https://www.dbsvickers.com/ 2018-11-08
SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY MAINTAIN BUY 3.59 DOWN 3.640