Ascendas Hospitality Trust - DBS Research 2018-11-01: Waiting To Be Rediscovered

ASCENDAS HOSPITALITY TRUST (SGX:Q1P)

Ascendas Hospitality Trust - Waiting To Be Rediscovered

Ascendas Hospitality Trust’s 2Q19 results in line; boosted by contributions from recent acquisitions and lower interest costs.
Australia operations hazy in the near term given new supply.
Strategic refurbishments to keep hotels competitive and attractive to guests.
Potential upside from acquisitions.

Ascendas Hospitality Trust’s (ASCHT) management has demonstrated the ability to buy low and sell high as seen by the sale of its Beijing hotels at more than twice the book value, exit yield of 3.6%, and redeploying the proceeds into properties with net property income (NPI) yield above 4.1%. However, this value add has not been recognised with ASCHT’s still trading c.24% below our fair value.
Attractive yields of 7.3%-7.6% provides support to share price.

We maintain our DCF-based Target Price of S$0.98. With 31% total return (24% capital upside and 7.3% yield), we reiterate our BUY call.

Key risks to our positive views are large falls in the AUD/JPY and excess supply in ASCHT’s respective markets, resulting in downside risks to our DPU estimates.

Ascendas Hospitality Trust’s (ASCHT) 2Q19 gross revenue and NPI fell 11.9% and 7.5% y-o-y to S$52.7m and S$22.1m, respectively. This was mainly due to the ongoing challenges faced by the REIT’s Australia operations due to increasing supply competition, coupled with the weakness of the AUD vs SGD exchange rate. The full quarter’s contribution from the recent acquisition of a hotel in Seoul has helped to partially offset the weaker performance.
Distributable income increased 3.6% y-o-y, mainly on interest cost savings and partial distribution of proceeds from the divestment of the China portfolio, resulting in 2.8% y-o-y growth in DPU to 1.42 Scts.
Overall, 1H19 DPU of 2.73 Scts (+2.9% y-o-y) – based on a c.93% payout of distributable income - formed c.47% of our FY19F estimates.

NPI fell 19.9% y-o-y to S$10.3m, partly dragged by the softer AUD which weakened by c.7% y-o-y against the SGD. In Australia: RevPAR was down 4.7% y-o-y in 2Q19 as average daily rates (ADR) were lowered to defend market share, and as such, the occupancy rates for its hotels in Sydney remained strong at c.90% while achieving mid-80% levels across its hotels in Melbourne and Brisbane.
Upcoming 2019 elections is a dampener on business travel but initiatives in place to increase competitiveness and drive performance, particularly in the leisure segment. In addition, the refurbishment of the café at Pullman and Mercure Brisbane are ongoing, and the proposed refurbishment of rooms in Novotel Sydney will commence in 2019.

RevPar was down 5% y-o-y as the Japan market was dragged by the earthquake and typhoon in Osaka.
Notwithstanding disruptive weather conditions, NPI held relatively steady (-1.6% y-o-y) at S$5.9m in 2Q19.

NPI from the Korea market more than doubled q-o-q to S$0.9m in 2Q19 on the first full quarter contributions from Splaisir Seoul Dongdaemum, which was acquired in May 2018. Whilst variable rents have yet to kick in, the hotel delivered strong underlying performance with RevPAR growth of 8.9% y-o-y.
Back home, Park Hotel Clarke Quay continued to ride on the recovery in the local hotel sector. RevPAR in Singapore improved 2.5% y-o-y, driving a 3.9% increase in NPI to S$3.4m
Enhanced rent structure improves earnings visibility. Following the divestment of the China portfolio, which was under a management contract, and initiation of a master lease contract for the newly acquired hotel in Seoul, the proportion of master lease vs management contract based income rose from 38% in 2Q18 to 50% in 2Q19.
Ahead of the bottoming out of the Australia market, we believe that the improved income visibility under the current balanced rent structure enhances stability, which bodes well for future distributions.

Mervin SONG CFA DBS Group Research | Derek TAN DBS Research | https://www.dbsvickers.com/ 2018-11-01

SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY MAINTAIN BUY 0.980 SAME 0.980