Sheng Siong Group - OCBC Investment 2018-06-28: A Shelter In Volatile Times

SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD SGX: OV8

Sheng Siong Group - A Shelter In Volatile Times

In times of volatility given the trade tensions between U.S. and China as well as Europe, we believe Sheng Siong Group (SSG) offers certainty over its earnings outlook backed by a resilient business model.
With nearly 100% exposure to Singapore (except for a new start-up store in China), and selling mainly consumer staples, we expect Sheng Siong Group’s business to be relatively unaffected by the on-going trade spat in other parts of the world.
Note that its new store in Kunming, China, contributed 0.8ppt to 1Q18 total revenue growth, but recorded S$0.1m loss in 1Q18, which in our view, remains insignificant.

As highlighted previously, we expect the 5.6% same stores sales growth (SSSG) recorded in 1Q18 to be sustainable for FY18 due to several factors including:
1. expanded Tampines 506 store (10k sqft to 25k sqft) that only opened in Jun 17,
2. spillover of customers from closure of The Verge store to another nearby store at Jalan Berseh, as well as from closure of Woodlands 6A to other stores in Woodlands.
That said, without these one-off factors, we expect SSSG to normalize to ~2% from FY19 onwards.
According to Euromonitor, grocery retailers in Singapore are forecasted to record a CAGR of 1.5% in sales for the period 2017-2022, which is in-line with our expectations. In addition, with healthy tender pipeline in FY18, we expect SSG to continue to bid rationally for new HDB stores in re-developed and new neighbourhoods, as well as expand in HDB estates where SSG currently does not have presence in.
While Sheng Siong Group offers unexciting growth, the defensive nature of its business model translates to stable cash flow, which is crucial amid uncertain global economic outlook.

On above-mentioned reasons, we continue to like Sheng Siong Group for its resilient business model supported by strong cash flow generation and solid balance sheet.
For now, we are keeping our Fair Value estimate of S1.12 unchanged.

Eugune Chua OCBC Investment | https://www.iocbc.com/ 2018-06-28

SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY Maintain BUY 1.120 Same 1.120