Far East Hospitality Trust - OCBC Investment 2018-02-19: Bow Wow Wow

Far East Hospitality Trust - OCBC Investment 2018-02-19: Bow Wow Wow FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST Q5T.SI

Far East Hospitality Trust - Bow Wow Wow

  • Lucky Year of the Dog! 
  • 6.2% FY18F yield as at 15 Feb close.
  • Maintain BUY.

4Q17 results within expectation. 

  • Far East Hospitality Trust's (FEHT) results were within expectations. 4Q17 gross revenue dropped 6.6% y-o-y to S$25.7m. Hotel RevPAR and Serviced Residences (SR) RevPAU dropped 2.4% y-o-y and 5.5% y-o-y respectively in 4Q17, which contributed to the master lease rental dropping 7.8% y-o-y. 4Q17 DPU dropped 13.4% YoY to 0.97 S cents. 
  • Altogether, FY17 revenue was down 4.8% y-o-y to S$103.8m while DPU ended 9.9% down y-o-y at 3.90 S cents or 98% of our full-year forecast.

Orchard and Novena assets affected in 4Q17 

  • We were slightly surprised by the weakness in 4Q17 RevPAR/RevPAU relative to the figures released by other REITs as well as Singapore Tourism Board (STB) since our last report. 
  • Recall that CDL Hospitality Trusts reported a 1.1% growth for its local hotels, while OUE Hospitality Trust posted a 2% RevPAR gain for Mandarin Orchard Singapore. For Serviced Residences, Ascott Residence Trust reported a 6% growth for its Singapore assets under management contract. 
  • FEHT’s management indicated that its Orchard assets and Oasia Hotel Novena found the entry of the nearby hotels in 4Q17 challenging. We believe poorer operating performance from these assets pulled down the positive RevPAR trend for the rest of the hotel portfolio.

Oasia Hotel Downtown has clear potential for RevPAR improvement 

  • We continue to see 2018 as a period of recovery from this low base, though we tweak our RevPAR growth rates for FY18 downward. 
  • For the serviced residences, we believe 1Q18 should see a marked improvement y-o-y – recall that FEHT’s Serviced Residences suffered a 13.1 ppt drop in occupancy to 71.2% in 1Q17. The SR occupancy has since recovered to 78.2% as at 4Q17. 
  • We remain positive on the acquisition of Oasia Hotel Downtown (OHD), which is expected to complete in April. We had a tour of asset after last Thursday’s briefing and were impressed with the facilities. We expect that Oasia Hotel Downtown will be able to achieve higher NPI in time, relative to the ~S$170 figure clocked for 9M17. 
  • After adjustments, our fair value decreases from S$0.77 to S$0.75. As at 15 Feb’s close, FEHT is trading at a FY17 yield of 5.5% (actual) and a FY18F yield of 6.2% (our forecasts). 
  • Maintain BUY.

Deborah Ong OCBC Investment | http://www.iocbc.com/ 2018-02-19
OCBC Investment SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY Maintain BUY 0.75 Down 0.770