Bumitama Agri - Consistent earnings growth delivery
- Bumitama Agri (BAL)'s 4Q16 earnings slightly below on steeper translation FX losses.
- FY17F FFB output guided to expand 15% y-o-y.
- FY17F/18F earnings tweaked -3%/-3%.
- Maintain BUY call for 25% upside to unchanged TP.
- We expect the group’s earnings to expand 7% CAGR between FY16 and FY19F, driven by an 8% CAGR expansion in crude palm oil (CPO) production over the same period.
- We reiterate our BUY call with a significant c.25% potential upside to our TP (unchanged). We believe there is currently excessive liquidity discount on the counter.
4Q16 earnings slightly below.
- Excluding Rp54bn deferred tax credit and changes in fair value of biological assets (net of deferred tax), Bumitama Agri (BAL) booked 4Q16 earnings of Rp387.4bn (+95% y-o-y; +154% q-o-q) – slightly below Rp411.7 bn expected, mainly on the back of steeper translation FX losses for the quarter.
- Imputing FY17F production guidance, expanded biodiesel capacity and FY16 results, we adjusted FY17F/18F earnings slightly by -3%/-3%.
- The counter’s DCF valuation remains unchanged at S$0.99, offering 25% potential upside from the current level.
Drop in planting not impacting medium-term volume growth.
- Aggressive expansion in FY05-13 has kept BAL’s tree-age profile younger relative to peers. This is forecast to deliver an 11% CAGR in FFB (Fresh Fruit Bunch) output (including smallholder estates) between FY16F and FY19F.
- We employed DCF valuation (FY17F base year) to arrive at BAL’s fair value of S$0.99/share (WACC: 10.4%, Rf: 8.4%, Rm: 13.3%, : 0.8, TG: 3%) offering c.22% potential upside from the current level.
Key Risks to Our View
- There would be downside risk to our CPO (Crude Palm Oil) price forecasts if Pertamina’s biodiesel off-take fails to live up to our expectations (3.7m MT) next year.
- CPO price could also move higher than forecast if there is significant yield deterioration in South American 1QCY17 soybean crop in the event of a strong La Nina.
- Changes in fund flows towards or out of emerging markets/commodities would also affect the valuations of plantation counters.