Frasers Commercial Trust - DBS Research 2017-01-24: Refreshing Alexandra Technopark

Frasers Commercial Trust - DBS Vickers 2017-01-24: Refreshing Alexandra Technopark FRASERS COMMERCIAL TRUST ND8U.SI

Frasers Commercial Trust - Refreshing Alexandra Technopark

  • 1Q17 DPU of 2.51 Scts (flat y-o-y) in line with expectations.
  • 100% of management fees paid in cash partially offsets 1% growth in 1Q17 cash net property income.
  • AEI at Alexandra Technopark to commence in mid- 2017 to boost DPU in the medium term.



Negatives priced in. 

  • We maintain our BUY call with TP of S$1.46. 
  • Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) has de-rated over the past year due to fears of a downturn in the Singapore office market and concerns over HP Inc and HP Enterprise leaving (c.17.5% of group gross rental income) Alexandra Technopark in September and November 2017. However, we believe these risks have been overblown given FCOT’s ability to maintain its current DPU through managing the proportion of payment of management fees in units and/or distribution of capital gains from the sale of the hotel development site at China Square Central.


Potential loss of HP as a tenant a blessing in disguise. 

  • Based on our analysis of HP Inc and HP Enterprises’ property footprint in Singapore, we anticipate that HP Enterprise will leave Alexandra Technopark. However, we think this is a blessing in disguise as it offers FCOT an opportunity to undertake an AEI (asset enhancement initiative) to increase rents and the value of the property in the medium term.


Spread to other office REITs too wide. 

  • FCOT currently trades on a 7.7% yield compared to the 6.1% average for large-cap office REITs such as CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT) and Keppel REIT (KREIT). 
  • We believe the 1.6% yield differential, which is higher than the historical average spread of 0.8%, is unwarranted given FCOT’s ability to maintain its current DPU.


Valuation

  • We trimmed our DCF-based TP to S$1.46 from S$1.49 after incorporating higher capex of S$45m for the AEI at Alexandra Technopark versus our previous estimate of S$25m.


Key Risks to Our View

  • Unfavourable forex movements. As FCOT derives c.45% of its net property income in AUD while distributions are based in SGD, foreign currency fluctuations will have an impact on distributions. The Manager has hedged its AUD exposure on a rolling basis of 6-9 months to mitigate such risks.




Melvin SONG CFA DBS Vickers | Derek TAN DBS Vickers | http://www.dbsvickers.com/ 2017-01-24
DBS Vickers SGX Stock Analyst Report BUY Maintain BUY 1.460 Down 1.490



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