SingTel - RHB Invest 2017-01-03: In a Better Position

SingTel - RHB Invest 2017-01-03: In a Better Position SINGTEL Z74.SI

SingTel - In a Better Position

  • Singtel is our Preferred telco Pick as its revenue/EBITDA exposure from the domestic market is markedly lower vs peers. Hence, it should be relatively shielded from the shift into a four player market. 
  • The group’s regional mobile assets should continue to be the key earnings driver, underpinned by strong data growth and smartphone adoption. 
  • The premium valuations (13x FY17F EV/EBITDA) reflect Singtel’s significant market capitalisation and exposure to higher yielding regional assets. 
  • Maintain NEUTRAL on heightened competition in Australia and India.



Best positioned to withstand fourth operator woes. 

  • Singtel would be the least impacted from the entry of a fourth operator in the market, as over two- thirds of the group’s EBITDA is derived from outside of Singapore. 
  • For 1HFY17 (Mar), Singapore consumer EBITDA (where its mobile segment is parked) made up some 11% of overall group EBITDA (including share of associate profits). 
  • We gather the response to its data upsized plans – Data X2 (introduced in Mar 2016) and more recently, Data X3 – has been good. We believe Singtel is well positioned to fend off competition from the new entrant, which will take some time to roll out its network. 
  • While overall industry mobile revenue contracted 2% YoY in 9M16, Singtel’s mobile service revenue trumped its peers, posting a marginal 0.9% decline vs StarHub’s (STH SP, NEUTRAL, TP: SGD3.15) and M1’s 3-4% contraction. This was largely supported by the strong data revenue growth that had partially offset the structural erosion in legacy voice and roaming revenues.


Regional associates remain the bright spots. 

  • Contributions from regional mobile associates rose 7% YoY in 2QFY17 and 11.5% YoY in 1HFY17, led by Telkomsel and Bharti Airtel’s (BHARTI IN, NR) +22% and +13%. 
  • We expect both operating companies (OpCos) to remain the key earnings drivers for the group going forward, supported by strong data revenue growth in the respective markets.


Enterprise is looking smart. 

  • Singtel is well poised to capitalise on the opportunities in the enterprise space. It is a major player in the smart nation initiatives in Singapore and Australia (via Optus). 
  • Group enterprise revenue would be supported by the cyber security business (Trustwave), Government infrastructure projects and on-boarding of Government agencies on the G-cloud platform, which should more than offset the decline in legacy carriage revenue.


NEUTRAL. 

  • Our SOP valuation of SGD4.00 implies 13x FY17F EV/EBITDA, at the higher end of its EV/EBITDA trading range of 10-14x over the past three years. 
  • Singtel trades at a premium to its domestic peers (average 7x FY17F EV/EBITDA) and regional peers of 7-8x, given its significantly larger market capitalisation and exposure to high yielding regional assets. 
  • Key risks include stronger-than-expected competition at the various OpCos, forex volatility, extended gestation periods at its new digital businesses, and higher-than-expected capex. 
  • Upside risks would be higher-than-expected dividends and stronger-than-expected improvement in economic activities driving stronger traction of the group’s enterprise business.




Singapore Research Team RHB Invest | http://www.rhbinvest.com.sg/ 2017-01-03
RHB Invest SGX Stock Analyst Report NEUTRAL Maintain NEUTRAL 4.000 Same 4.000



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