SG Residential Property - OCBC Investment 2016-07-05: Home prices likely to grind lower

CAPITALAND LIMITED C31.SI UOL GROUP LIMITED U14.SI CITY DEVELOPMENTS LIMITED C09.SI

SG Residential Property: Home prices likely to grind lower

According to URA flash estimates, the private property index fell 0.4% over 2Q16 – versus a 0.7% dip in 1Q16 – which brought the cumulative price decline to 9.4% since peaking in 3Q13.
Looking ahead to 2H16, barring curb reversals, we expect home prices to grind lower under a potent mix of an uninspiring economic outlook, continued physical over-supply and persistent pressure from still-falling rentals as buyer sentiments remain cautious in what is by now one of the longest property bear in recent history.
On a relative value basis, we prefer the prime residential property segment (CCR), which in fact saw prices move against the grain by increasing 0.2% and 0.3% in 2Q16 and 1Q16, respectively.
On the other hand, the mass- market segment, however, (OCR) presents the least attractive risk-reward in our view. OCR prices fell 0.7% in 2Q16 after registering a 1.3% decline in the previous quarter.

Under current market conditions, we see new home sales settling at a relatively stable equilibrium of between 7k and 9k per annum.
Given that developers generally continue to enjoy firm balance sheets, there is firm competition for prime land-bank.
To illustrate, the latest GLS tender at River Valley attracted a solid 13 bidders and a top bid from S$595.1m from Guocoland, which was the highest for a GLS site outside on Sentosa since 2009. This site at the junction of River Valley Close and Martin Place is expected to yield ~450 high-end homes with an estimated breakeven price of ~S$1.9k. Assuming a 10%-20% profit margin, the market expects Guocoland to launch at S$2.1k to S$2.4k psf.

Maintain NEUTRAL on the domestic residential sector.
We continue to prefer developers with diversified portfolio exposure and strong balance sheets.
Our top developer picks are CapitaLand [BUY, FV: S$3.68], City Dev [BUY, FV: S$9.89] and UOL [BUY, FV: S$7.43].

Eli Lee OCBC Securities | http://www.ocbcresearch.com/ 2016-07-05

OCBC Securities Analyst Report BUY Maintain BUY 3.68 Same 3.68

BUY Maintain BUY 7.43 Same 7.43

BUY Maintain BUY 9.89 Same 9.89